Toll Brothers stock
TOLNYSEToll Brothers, Inc., Consumer CyclicalISIN US8894781033
75Score 75 out of 100, Strong
Price and trend
69 / 100
Price history
+9.2% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 2.5% above it.
Since September 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 58).
The price is 11% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 74% (January 2018 to March 2020).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$139.25
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$144.42
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)58
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$124.14
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$166.12
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Toll Brothers, Inc. belongs to the Residential Construction industry (United States) and, with a market value of $13.64B, is number 6 of 25 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $10.97B (up 1.1% year on year) and earnings of $1.35B (down 14.3%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $10.8B (down 1.5%) and adjusted earnings per share of $12.70 (down 6.4%).
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- MEQIRI Score 75 out of 100 (Strong): rank 84 of 602 in Consumer Cyclical, median 61.
- The P/E is 11.8 (Residential Construction median 14.5, own median of recent years 9.7).
- Our model puts fair value at $189.27, with the price 20% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Earnings per share growingUp 31.7% a year since 2020.Growth 71
- Share buybacksShare count down 24% since 2020.Capital allocation 81
- Consistently profitableProfit in all 10 fiscal years from 2016 to 2025.Fundamentals 83
Weaknesses
None of our weakness checks flags anything. Crash risk is measured separately.
Its standout strengths are stability and fundamentals.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Fundamentals are strong, with stable profits and strong cash generation.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk medium
How well MEQIRI warnsIn the middle among stocks ranked 101 to 1,000.
From 2016 to 2025, 13 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 15 in 100.
What lowers it
- solid fundamentals
Valuation
Valuation signal
Modestly undervaluedClosing price of 11 Nov 2026, used by the daily score.
In our model the price counts as cheap below $145.59 and expensive above $270.38 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $196.46 (cash-flow model) and $182.07 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $173.04, at 7.8% it would be $213.59.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (14.5).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 31 Jul 2026, revenue fell 1.1% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown solidly since 2006, at about 3% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 26%, operating 16%, net 12%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterThe balance sheet is solid, with moderate debt and comfortable interest coverage.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 7 Dec 2026in 25 days
- Last reported
- 18 Aug 2026EPS reported $2.97 (expected $2.93)in line with expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $13.59−1.5%
- Revenue
- $10.88B−1.1%
- Earnings per share
- $15.24−1.4%
- Revenue
- $11.54B−2.2%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook raised
Share price after the results: +1.6%All full-year guidance metrics reaffirmed, average delivered price raised to $995,000 to $1 million (about $53 million more revenue), 10,500 to 10,600 homes, share repurchases increased to $700 million.
“We now project between 10,500 and 10,600 delivered homes at an average price between $995,000 and $1 million, which equates to an approximate $53 million increase in our full year home sales revenue guidance.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 19 Aug 2026 (fiscal Q3 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases in the last 6 months. 3 insiders sold, $13.44M in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Toll Brothers
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
602 rated companies in Consumer Cyclical
- This company
- 75
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Residential Construction
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- PulteGroupPHM $24.67B71
- LennarLEN $20.54B52
- NVRNVR $15.6B71
- Sekisui House1928.T $14.28B66
- Installed Building ProductsIBP $5.57B70
- Champion HomesSKY $5B69
- Cavco IndustriesCVCO $4.96B80
- Meritage HomesMTH $4.29B57
ETFs that hold Toll Brothers
Held by 15 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amundi Global Luxury UCITS ETF EUR AccGLUX | 1.49% | 0.35% | €411.57M |
| State Street SPDR S&P 400 U.S. Mid Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)SPY4 | 0.43% | 0.30% | €5.27B |
| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.39% | 0.30% | €944.34M |
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| iShares MSCI USA Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFSXRG | 0.20% | 0.43% | €2.48B |
| State Street SPDR MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRS | 0.14% | 0.45% | €1.53B |
| WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth UCITS ETF USD AccWTEM | 0.09% | 0.38% | €1.5B |
| iShares MSCI World Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFCBUG | 0.05% | 0.35% | €434.1M |
| Invesco RAFI US Fundamental Value UCITS ETF6PSA | 0.05% | 0.39% | €1.23B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Oct 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 21 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.