HelloFresh stock
HFG.DEXETRAHelloFresh SE, Consumer DefensiveISIN DE000A161408WKN A16140
39Score 39 out of 100, Weak
Price and trend
45 / 100
Price history
−51% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 9 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 23% below it.
Since April 2025 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 45).
The price is 53% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 9 years: 98% (August 2021 to September 2026).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$3.05
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$4.17
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)45
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$2.54
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$6.86
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- HelloFresh SE belongs to the Grocery Stores industry (Germany) and, with a market value of $464.21M, is number 26 of 27 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $7.49B (down 11.8% year on year) and a loss of $102.61M.
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $6.69B (down 10.7%) and adjusted earnings per share of $0.36.
Show more
- MEQIRI Score 39 out of 100 (Weak): rank 282 of 296 in Consumer Defensive, median 62.
- Our model puts fair value at $12.40, with the price 74% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Share buybacksShare count down 7% since 2020.Capital allocation 57
- Growing faster than its industryRevenue up 12.5% a year since 2020, Grocery Stores median 5%.
- More cash than debtCash $566.57M, financial debt $500.86M.
Weaknesses
- Loss-makingLoss of $27.59M over the last 12 months.Fundamentals 27
- Turned to a lossEarnings per share from $2.43 in 2020 to −$0.65.Growth 30
- Share price fell sharplyDown 51% over the last 12 months.Momentum 21
Its standout strength is valuation, while profitability and momentum hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 40 to 39.
Fundamental quality fluctuates.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 36 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- weak fundamentals
- price far below its 52-week high
- high price swings
What lowers it
- price not overheated over the past year
Valuation
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $8.86 and expensive above $20.67 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.1%. At 8.1% the fair value would be $10.85, at 6.1% it would be $14.70.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but score below 50, weak balance sheet.
Valuation metrics
From the cash-flow model alone; without earnings there is no industry value.
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue fell 11.7% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown strongly since 2013, at around 67% per year. From 2013 revenue is reported differently (for example gross instead of net), so earlier years are not comparable and not shown.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 58%, operating 0%, net −1%. From 2013 revenue is reported differently (for example gross instead of net), so earlier years are not comparable and not shown.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterDebt is moderate, but interest coverage is weak. Keep an eye on the interest burden and refinancing.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 2 Mar 2027in 109 days
- Last reported
- 5 Nov 2026EPS reported −$0.30 (expected −$0.37)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Analysts have cut their 2026 earnings estimate by 18.9% since 15 Oct 2026. Falling estimates often precede bad news.
- Earnings per share
- $0.36−18.9%
- Revenue
- $6.69B−2.4%
- Earnings per share
- $0.27−8.1%
- Revenue
- $6.45B−4.4%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook confirmed
Share price after the results: −8.4%Adjusted EBITDA outlook fully reconfirmed, but constant-currency revenue growth is trending towards the bottom end of the full-year range.
“For our constant currency revenue growth, we see it trending towards the bottom end of the full-year range, and we will gain further visibility following the back-to-school campaign.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 13 Aug 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
What happened at HelloFresh
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
296 rated companies in Consumer Defensive
- This company
- 39
- Sector median
- 62
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Grocery Stores
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Weis MarketsWMK $1.94B59
- Ingles MarketsIMKTA $1.59B52
- Grocery Outlet HoldingGO $1.27B46
- YeswayYSWY $760.62M47
- Natural Grocers by Vitamin CottageNGVC $672.72M62
- Krispy KremeDNUT $643.69M35
- Village Super MarketVLGEA $625.72M65
- Dingdong (Cayman)DDL $405.46M30
ETFs that hold HelloFresh
Held by 17 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amundi SDAX UCITS ETF DistC005 | 1.01% | 0.70% | €158.8M |
| State Street SPDR MSCI Europe Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETF EUR AccZPRX | 0.15% | 0.30% | €813.64M |
| iShares MSCI EMU Small Cap UCITS ETFSXRJ | 0.09% | 0.58% | €838.19M |
Show 5 more
| Amundi MSCI EMU Small Cap ESG Broad Transition UCITS ETF DISTLGWU | 0.08% | 0.40% | €580.62M |
| Xtrackers MSCI Europe Small Cap UCITS ETF 1CXXSC | 0.03% | 0.30% | €3.45B |
| Amundi F.A.Z. 100 UCITS ETFC006 | 0.02% | 0.15% | €104.39M |
| Amundi MSCI Europe Small Cap ESG Broad Transition UCITS ETF DistX026 | 0.02% | 0.23% | €321.86M |
| Vanguard Germany All Cap UCITS ETF (EUR) DistributingVGER | 0.02% | 0.07% | €255.26M |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 31 Oct 2023)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.