Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage stock
NGVCNYSENatural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., Consumer DefensiveISIN US63888U1088
62Score 62 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
55 / 100
Price history
−7.6% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 14 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 1.6% above it.
Since July 2026 the 50-day line has been above the 200-day line; the trend has turned up.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 34).
The price is 14% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 14 years: 89% (March 2014 to October 2017).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$29.61
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$28.70
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)34
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$23.71
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$33.74
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. belongs to the Grocery Stores industry (United States) and, with a market value of $671.79M, is number 23 of 27 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $1.33B (up 7.2% year on year) and earnings of $46.44M (up 36.9%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $1.36B (up 2.3%) and adjusted earnings per share of $2.10 (up 4.8%).
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- MEQIRI Score 62 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 159 of 295 in Consumer Defensive, median 62.
- The P/E is 14.2 (Grocery Stores median 19.6, own median of recent years 18.9).
- Our model puts fair value at $40.86, with the price 29% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Below fair valuePrice 29% below the fair value of $40.86.Valuation 70
- Consistently profitableProfit in all 10 fiscal years from 2016 to 2025.Fundamentals 81
- Earnings per share growingUp 17.8% a year since 2020.Growth 65
Weaknesses
None of our weakness checks flags anything. Crash risk is measured separately.
Its standout strengths are fundamentals and valuation, while momentum holds the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 63 to 62.
Fundamentals are strong, with stable profits and strong cash generation.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk medium
How well MEQIRI warnsIn the middle among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 20 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What lowers it
- solid fundamentals
Valuation
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $31.43 and expensive above $58.37 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $41.63 (cash-flow model) and $40.08 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $37.43, at 7.8% it would be $46.00.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (19.6).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Jun 2026, revenue rose 2% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown strongly since 2009, at around 12% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 30%, operating 5%, net 3%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterMeaningfully leveraged, but the interest bill is comfortably covered.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 19 Nov 2026in 7 days
- Last reported
- 6 Aug 2026EPS reported $0.48 (expected $0.52)below expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $2.27−0.1%
- Revenue
- $1.44B+0.5%
- Earnings per share
- $2.130.0%
- Revenue
- $1.39B0.0%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook lowered
Share price after the results: −11.1%Full-year outlook trimmed: EPS of $2.07 to $2.11 (previously $2.07 to $2.15) and comparable store sales growth of 1.5% to 2% (previously up to 2.5%).
“Our outlook includes the following: open 6 to 7 new stores compared to our prior outlook of between 6 and 8, relocate or remodel 2 existing stores compared to our prior outlook of between 2 and 3 stores; achieve daily average comparable store sales growth between 1.5% and 2% compared to our prior outlook of between …”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 6 Aug 2026 (fiscal Q3 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases in the last 6 months. One insider sold, $87,120 in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
- Isely CharitySale
29 May 2026, Insider
- Shares
- 3,000
- Price
- $29.04
- Value
- $87,120
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
295 rated companies in Consumer Defensive
- This company
- 62
- Sector median
- 62
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Grocery Stores
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Weis MarketsWMK $2B60
- Ingles MarketsIMKTA $1.6B53
- Grocery Outlet HoldingGO $1.3B46
- YeswayYSWY $799.91M46
- Krispy KremeDNUT $662.77M35
- Village Super MarketVLGEA $624.98M65
- HelloFreshHFG.DE $466.14M40
- Dingdong (Cayman)DDL $397.96M29
ETFs that hold Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage
Held by 9 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avantis Global Small Cap Value UCITS ETFAVWS | 0.04% | 0.39% | €1.47B |
| iShares MSCI USA Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFSXRG | 0.02% | 0.43% | €2.48B |
| State Street SPDR Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRR | 0.02% | 0.30% | €4.22B |
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| Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF 1CXRS2 | 0.01% | 0.30% | €2.17B |
| iShares MSCI World Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFCBUG | 0.01% | 0.35% | €434.1M |
| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.01% | 0.30% | €944.34M |
| State Street SPDR MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRS | 0.00% | 0.45% | €1.53B |
| State Street SPDR MSCI All Country World Investable Market UCITS ETF (Acc)SPYI | 0.00% | 0.17% | €8.6B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 30 Sep 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 31 Jan 2023)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.