Grocery Outlet Holding stock
GONASDAQGrocery Outlet Holding Corp., Consumer DefensiveISIN US39874R1014
46Score 46 out of 100, Weak
Price and trend
80 / 100
Price history
+13% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 7 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 32% above it.
Since August 2026 the 50-day line has been above the 200-day line; the trend has turned up.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 46).
The price is 8.3% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 7 years: 88% (August 2019 to March 2026).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$12.25
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$9.72
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)46
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$5.79
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$14.02
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. belongs to the Grocery Stores industry (United States) and, with a market value of $1.27B, is number 21 of 27 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $4.69B (up 7.3% year on year) and a loss of $224.91M.
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $4.7B (up 0.2%) and adjusted earnings per share of $0.55 (down 28.1%).
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- MEQIRI Score 46 out of 100 (Weak): rank 255 of 295 in Consumer Defensive, median 62.
- Our model puts fair value at $11.98, with the price 10% above it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
None of our strength checks applies.
Weaknesses
- Loss-makingLoss of $379.57M over the last 12 months.Fundamentals 60
- Turned to a lossEarnings per share from $1.16 in 2020 to −$2.30.Growth 48
- Volatile share priceVolatility 53% a year over the last 12 months.Stability 32
Its standout strengths are technical analysis and momentum, while profitability and capital allocation hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 47 to 46.
The fundamentals are in the middle range.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk medium
How well MEQIRI warnsIn the middle among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 20 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- high price swings
What lowers it
- price near its 52-week high
Valuation
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedClosing price of 11 Nov 2026, used by the daily score.
In our model the price counts as cheap below $8.55 and expensive above $19.96 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $9.83, at 7.8% it would be $15.20.
Valuation metrics
From the cash-flow model alone; without earnings there is no industry value.
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 3 Oct 2026, revenue rose 4% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown solidly since 2016, at about 11% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 30%, operating −5%, net −5%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterDebt is elevated. Keep an eye on the interest burden and refinancing.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 3 Mar 2027in 111 days
- Last reported
- 10 Nov 2026EPS reported $0.16 (expected $0.16)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $0.550.0%
- Revenue
- $4.7B0.0%
- Earnings per share
- $0.67−1.0%
- Revenue
- $4.92B+0.1%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook raised
Share price after the results: +9.9%Low ends of the full-year outlook raised: net sales of $4.7 billion to $4.72 billion, comparable store sales of negative 0.5% to 0.0%, gross margin of 29.8% to 30%.
“For the full year, we now expect net new store openings of 30 to 33, net sales of $4.7 billion to $4.72 billion comparable store sales in the range of negative 0.5% to 0.0%, gross margin of 29.8% to 30%, We continue to expect approximately $20 million of incremental promotional investment for the full year with …”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 12 Aug 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
2 insiders bought on the open market in the last 6 months, $403,900 in total. One insider sold, $16,182 in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Grocery Outlet Holding
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
295 rated companies in Consumer Defensive
- This company
- 46
- Sector median
- 62
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Grocery Stores
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Colruyt GroupCOLR.BR $4.92B60
- Sprouts Farmers MarketSFM $4.66B60
- Weis MarketsWMK $2B60
- Ingles MarketsIMKTA $1.6B53
- YeswayYSWY $799.91M46
- Natural Grocers by Vitamin CottageNGVC $671.79M62
- Krispy KremeDNUT $662.77M35
- Village Super MarketVLGEA $624.98M65
ETFs that hold Grocery Outlet Holding
Held by 12 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avantis Global Small Cap Value UCITS ETFAVWS | 0.12% | 0.39% | €1.47B |
| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.08% | 0.30% | €944.34M |
| iShares S&P SmallCap 600 UCITS ETFIUS3 | 0.07% | 0.30% | €2.28B |
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| State Street SPDR Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRR | 0.05% | 0.30% | €4.22B |
| Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF 1CXRS2 | 0.04% | 0.30% | €2.17B |
| L&G Russell 2000 US Small Cap Quality UCITS ETFETLZ | 0.04% | 0.30% | €185.82M |
| iShares MSCI USA Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFSXRG | 0.03% | 0.43% | €2.48B |
| iShares MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETFIUSN | 0.01% | 0.35% | €8.19B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 3 Jan 2026
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 31 May 2024)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.