Carvana stock
CVNANYSECarvana Co., Consumer CyclicalISIN US1468691027
59Score 59 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
68 / 100
Price history
+7.9% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 10 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 3.6% above it.
Since March 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 66).
The price is 26% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 10 years: 99% (August 2021 to December 2022).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$65.80
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$68.37
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)66
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$56.26
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$95.69
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Carvana Co. belongs to the Auto (Dealerships) industry (United States) and, with a market value of $77.7B, is the largest of 19 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $20.32B (up 48.6% year on year) and earnings of $1.41B (up 570%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $29.67B (up 46%) and adjusted earnings per share of $1.55.
Show more
- MEQIRI Score 59 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 335 of 602 in Consumer Cyclical, median 61.
- The P/E is 30.7 (Auto (Dealerships) median 14.9, own median of recent years 41.4).
- Our model puts fair value at $28.11, with the price 163% above it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Growing faster than its industryRevenue up 29.5% a year since 2020, Auto (Dealerships) median 15.9%.Growth 70
- Analysts expect strong earnings growthUp 25.8% a year through 2028 (estimates from 10 analysts).Growth 70
- High return on capitalReturn on invested capital 24.5% in fiscal 2025, Auto (Dealerships) median 6.9%.Profitability 70
Weaknesses
- DilutionShare count up 112% since 2020.Capital allocation 53
- Above fair valuePrice 163% above the fair value of $28.11.Valuation 29
- Volatile share priceVolatility 61% a year over the last 12 months.Stability 45
Its standout strengths are momentum and growth, while stability and valuation hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Fundamental quality fluctuates.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among stocks ranked 101 to 1,000.
From 2016 to 2025, 23 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 15 in 100.
What drives the risk
- weak fundamentals
- high price swings
Valuation
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedClosing price of 11 Nov 2026, used by the daily score.
In our model the price counts as cheap below $18.74 and expensive above $56.21 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $21.95 (cash-flow model) and $34.26 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $26.31, at 7.8% it would be $30.80.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (14.9).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 50.3% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown strongly since 2014, at around 76% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 21%, operating 9%, net 7%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterDebt is moderate, but interest coverage is weak. Keep an eye on the interest burden and refinancing.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 17 Feb 2027in 97 days
- Last reported
- 28 Oct 2026EPS reported $0.39 (expected $0.44)below expectations
Analyst estimates
Analysts have cut their 2026 earnings estimate by 4.2% since 15 Oct 2026. Falling estimates often precede bad news.
- Earnings per share
- $1.55−4.2%
- Revenue
- $29.67B+2.3%
- Earnings per share
- $2.15−2.7%
- Revenue
- $37.6B+3.1%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook raised
Share price after the results: +15.3%Carvana now expects full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA at the higher end of its previous $2.7 billion to $3.0 billion range and expects sequentially higher retail units sold.
“Looking forward, we expect the following as long as the environment remains stable: a sequential increase in retail units sold and adjusted EBITDA in the higher end of our previously communicated range of $2.7 billion to $3.0 billion for the full year 2026.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 28 Oct 2026 (fiscal Q3 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
One insider bought on the open market in the last 6 months, $1.54M in total. 7 insiders sold, $72.61M in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
- Platt Ira J.Sale
4 Nov 2026, Board
- Shares
- 29,640
- Price
- $75.75
- Value
- $2.25M
- Gill Daniel J.Sale
3 Nov 2026, Chief Product Officer
- Shares
- 253,639
- Price
- $71.46
- Value
- $18.13M
- Platt Ira J.Sale
3 Nov 2026, Board
- Shares
- 30,000
- Price
- $71.74
- Value
- $2.15M
Show 26 more
- Jenkins Mark W.Sale
2 Nov 2026, Chief Financial Officer
- Shares
- 63,750
- Price
- $71.78
- Value
- $4.58M
- Palmer Stephen RSale
2 Nov 2026, Vice President of Accounting
- Shares
- 5,000
- Price
- $71.71
- Value
- $358,571
- Quayle J DanforthSale
30 Oct 2026, Board
- Shares
- 14,520
- Price
- $68.88
- Value
- $1M
- Taira ThomasSale
12 Oct 2026, President, Special Projects
- Shares
- 5,597
- Price
- $65.00
- Value
- $363,805
- Palmer Stephen RSale
1 Oct 2026, Vice President of Accounting
- Shares
- 5,000
- Price
- $61.64
- Value
- $308,203
- Jenkins Mark W.Sale
1 Oct 2026, Chief Financial Officer
- Shares
- 63,750
- Price
- $61.64
- Value
- $3.93M
- Taira ThomasSale
14 Sept 2026, President, Special Projects
- Shares
- 16,789
- Price
- $70.58
- Value
- $1.18M
- Huston Benjamin E.Sale
1 Sept 2026, Chief Operating Officer
- Shares
- 50,000
- Price
- $71.55
- Value
- $3.58M
- Palmer Stephen RSale
1 Sept 2026, Vice President of Accounting
- Shares
- 5,000
- Price
- $71.55
- Value
- $357,768
- Jenkins Mark W.Sale
1 Sept 2026, Chief Financial Officer
- Shares
- 63,750
- Price
- $71.55
- Value
- $4.56M
- Platt Ira J.Sale
14 Aug 2026, Board
- Shares
- 15,000
- Price
- $75.50
- Value
- $1.13M
- Quayle J DanforthSale
14 Aug 2026, Board
- Shares
- 14,525
- Price
- $75.00
- Value
- $1.09M
- Platt Ira J.Sale
13 Aug 2026, Board
- Shares
- 15,000
- Price
- $73.00
- Value
- $1.1M
- Jenkins Mark W.Sale
3 Aug 2026, Chief Financial Officer
- Shares
- 63,750
- Price
- $64.50
- Value
- $4.11M
- Palmer Stephen RSale
3 Aug 2026, Vice President of Accounting
- Shares
- 5,000
- Price
- $64.49
- Value
- $322,474
- Huston Benjamin E.Sale
3 Aug 2026, Chief Operating Officer
- Shares
- 50,000
- Price
- $64.50
- Value
- $3.22M
- Maroone Michael EPurchase
31 Jul 2026, Board
- Shares
- 25,000
- Price
- $61.80
- Value
- $1.54M
- Jenkins Mark W.Sale
1 Jul 2026, Chief Financial Officer
- Shares
- 63,750
- Price
- $68.34
- Value
- $4.36M
- Huston Benjamin E.Sale
1 Jul 2026, Chief Operating Officer
- Shares
- 50,000
- Price
- $68.55
- Value
- $3.43M
- Palmer Stephen RSale
1 Jul 2026, Vice President of Accounting
- Shares
- 5,000
- Price
- $68.53
- Value
- $342,633
- Platt Ira J.Sale
15 Jun 2026, Board
- Shares
- 15,000
- Price
- $67.83
- Value
- $1.02M
- Quayle J DanforthSale
10 Jun 2026, Board
- Shares
- 14,525
- Price
- $70.00
- Value
- $1.02M
- Taira ThomasSale
8 Jun 2026, President, Special Projects
- Shares
- 5,597
- Price
- $67.15
- Value
- $375,839
- Huston Benjamin E.Sale
1 Jun 2026, Chief Operating Officer
- Shares
- 50,000
- Price
- $70.39
- Value
- $3.52M
- Jenkins Mark W.Sale
1 Jun 2026, Chief Financial Officer
- Shares
- 63,750
- Price
- $70.40
- Value
- $4.49M
- Palmer Stephen RSale
1 Jun 2026, Vice President of Accounting
- Shares
- 5,000
- Price
- $70.42
- Value
- $352,101
Partial trades from one filing are shown in one row, with the average price.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Carvana
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
602 rated companies in Consumer Cyclical
- This company
- 59
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Auto (Dealerships)
The next smaller companies by market value
- Penske Automotive GroupPAG $14.07B66
- D'Ieteren GroupDIE.BR $10.3B71
- Hotai Motor2207.TW $8.77B56
- CarMaxKMX $7.65B50
- Lithia MotorsLAD $6.75B56
- AutoNationAN $5.99B57
- Rush EnterprisesRUSHA $5.27B57
- USS4732.T $5.23B81
ETFs that hold Carvana
Held by 92 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global X S&P 500 Covered Call UCITS ETF IncXY7D | 4.01% | 0.45% | €203.27M |
| iShares Digitalisation UCITS ETF2B79 | 2.11% | 0.40% | €726.22M |
| iShares S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Sector UCITS ETFQDVK | 1.10% | 0.15% | €719.53M |
Show 5 more
| State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Consumer Discretionary Select Sector UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPDD | 1.07% | 0.15% | €123.56M |
| Xtrackers MSCI USA Consumer Discretionary UCITS ETF 1DXUCD | 0.96% | 0.12% | €150.96M |
| Xtrackers MSCI World Consumer Discretionary UCITS ETF 1CXDWC | 0.58% | 0.25% | €388.27M |
| Deka MSCI USA MC UCITS ETFEL41 | 0.53% | 0.30% | €51.58M |
| iShares MSCI World Consumer Discretionary Sector Advanced UCITS ETF36BB | 0.47% | 0.18% | €33.17M |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 28 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.