Chipotle Mexican Grill stock
CMGNYSEChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., Consumer CyclicalISIN US1696561059
75Score 75 out of 100, Strong
Price and trend
60 / 100
Price history
+23% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 8.2% above it.
Since September 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Overheated: the price has risen very quickly lately (RSI 84).
The price is 10% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 75% (December 2007 to November 2008).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$32.65
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$33.85
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)84
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$27.52
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$40.87
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. belongs to the Restaurants industry (United States) and, with a market value of $46.35B, is number 3 of 42 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $11.93B (up 5.4% year on year) and earnings of $1.54B (up 0.1%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $13B (up 9%) and adjusted earnings per share of $1.09 (down 5.7%).
Show more
- MEQIRI Score 75 out of 100 (Strong): rank 78 of 602 in Consumer Cyclical, median 61.
- The P/E is 33.7 (Restaurants median 26, own median of recent years 53.8).
- Our model puts fair value at $30.87, with the price 19% above it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Earnings per share growingUp 35.7% a year since 2020.Growth 94
- High return on capitalReturn on invested capital 22.6% in fiscal 2025, Restaurants median 6.5%.Profitability 75
- Consistently profitableProfit in all 10 fiscal years from 2016 to 2025.Fundamentals 94
Weaknesses
- High debtDebt 2.28 times equity (latest quarter), Restaurants median 1.26.Stability 50
Its standout strengths are fundamentals and growth, while valuation holds the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Fundamentals are strong, with stable profits and strong cash generation.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk medium
How well MEQIRI warnsIn the middle among stocks ranked 101 to 1,000.
From 2016 to 2025, 13 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 15 in 100.
What drives the risk
- high growth grade (crashed more often in the backtest)
What lowers it
- solid fundamentals
Valuation
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $22.05 and expensive above $51.44 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $33.48 (cash-flow model) and $28.25 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is slightly above both parts; given how much the stock swings, that still counts as fair.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $27.97, at 7.8% it would be $35.22.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (26).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 7.9% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown strongly since 2006, at around 15% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 25%, operating 17%, net 13%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterMeaningfully leveraged, but the interest bill is comfortably covered.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 2 Feb 2027in 82 days
- Last reported
- 28 Oct 2026EPS reported $0.27 (expected $0.29)below expectations
Analyst estimates
Analysts have cut their 2026 earnings estimate by 4.9% since 15 Oct 2026. Falling estimates often precede bad news.
- Earnings per share
- $1.09−4.9%
- Revenue
- $13B−0.2%
- Earnings per share
- $1.33−3.3%
- Revenue
- $14.39B−0.4%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook lowered
Share price after the results: +11.8%Chipotle confirms low single-digit comparable sales growth for 2026, but guides Q4 operating margin about 150 basis points lower year over year due to higher marketing spend and softer demand, with no 2027 guidance given yet.
“Altogether, this will put Q4 margins at just under 22%, which is roughly 150 basis points lower than last year. After normalizing for a 70 basis point gift card breakage benefit in the prior year and the shift in marketing spend to support Brisket, the decline is driven by sales volume.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 28 Oct 2026 (fiscal Q3 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases in the last 6 months. One insider sold, $95,631 in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
- Bush Matthew RSale
21 Aug 2026, Controller, PAO
- Shares
- 2,675
- Price
- $35.75
- Value
- $95,631
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Chipotle Mexican Grill
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
602 rated companies in Consumer Cyclical
- This company
- 75
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Restaurants
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- McDonald'sMCD $194.46B75
- StarbucksSBUX $125.29B64
- Yum! BrandsYUM $43.72B79
- Restaurant Brands InternationalQSR $26.7B69
- Darden RestaurantsDRI $25.9B74
- Yum China HoldingsYUMC $16.52B72
- Zensho Holdings7550.T $12.48B73
- Texas RoadhouseTXRH $12.36B78
ETFs that hold Chipotle Mexican Grill
Held by 121 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| VanEck Morningstar US ESG Wide Moat UCITS ETFGMVM | 1.27% | 0.49% | €368.7M |
| iShares Edge MSCI USA Quality Factor UCITS ETFQDVB | 0.94% | 0.20% | €1.89B |
| Xtrackers MSCI USA Consumer Discretionary UCITS ETF 1DXUCD | 0.94% | 0.12% | €150.96M |
Show 5 more
| iShares S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Sector UCITS ETFQDVK | 0.91% | 0.15% | €719.53M |
| State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Consumer Discretionary Select Sector UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPDD | 0.88% | 0.15% | €123.56M |
| iShares MSCI World Consumer Discretionary Sector Advanced UCITS ETF36BB | 0.80% | 0.18% | €33.17M |
| UBS Factor MSCI USA Quality Screened UCITS ETF hEUR accUBUX | 0.66% | 0.28% | €1.14B |
| Amundi S&P Global Consumer Discretionary ESG UCITS ETF Accum-DR EURWELJ | 0.66% | 0.18% | €644.77M |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 31 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.