Carnival stock
CCLNYSECarnival Corporation & plc, Consumer CyclicalISIN BMG2004J1036
63Score 63 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
71 / 100
Price history
+15% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 13% above it.
Since March 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 66).
The price is 9.7% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 91% (January 2018 to October 2022).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$25.69
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$27.14
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)66
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$21.79
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$33.99
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Carnival Corporation & plc belongs to the Travel Services industry (United States) and, with a market value of $41.25B, is number 4 of 20 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $26.62B (up 6.4% year on year) and earnings of $2.76B (up 44.1%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $27.72B (up 4.1%) and adjusted earnings per share of $2.26 (up 0.4%).
Show more
- MEQIRI Score 63 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 276 of 602 in Consumer Cyclical, median 61.
- The P/E is 13.4 (Travel Services median 16.7, own median of recent years 13.7).
- Our model puts fair value at $45.23, with the price 32% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Earnings turn into cashFree cash flow 101% of earnings over the last 12 months.Fundamentals 61
Weaknesses
- DilutionShare count up 69% since 2020.Capital allocation 39
- Volatile share priceVolatility 50% a year over the last 12 months.Stability 32
Its standout strengths are valuation and momentum, while capital allocation and stability hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
The fundamentals are in the middle range.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among stocks ranked 101 to 1,000.
From 2016 to 2025, 23 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 15 in 100.
What lowers it
- price near its 52-week high
Valuation
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $32.31 and expensive above $75.38 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $52.14 (cash-flow model) and $38.32 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 11%. At 12% the fair value would be $42.08, at 10% it would be $49.40.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but high risk.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (16.7).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 31 Aug 2026, revenue rose 5.2% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown solidly since 2006, at about 4% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 30%, operating 17%, net 10%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterDebt is elevated. Keep an eye on the interest burden and refinancing.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 18 Dec 2026in 36 days
- Last reported
- 29 Sep 2026EPS reported $1.43 (expected $1.35)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $2.26+0.2%
- Revenue
- $27.72B0.0%
- Earnings per share
- $2.58+0.1%
- Revenue
- $28.61B0.0%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook raised
Share price after the results: +10.8%The fourth quarter yield growth outlook was raised to about 1.7%, over 0.75 points above implied June guidance, and 2026 EPS guidance is now $2.24, up $0.02.
“For the fourth quarter, we now expect year-over-year growth of approximately 1.7%, over 0.75 points above our implied June guidance.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 29 Sep 2026 (fiscal Q3 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases in the last 6 months. 3 insiders sold, $2.74M in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Carnival
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
602 rated companies in Consumer Cyclical
- This company
- 63
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Travel Services
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Booking HoldingsBKNG $119.15B78
- AirbnbABNB $108.09B77
- Royal Caribbean CruisesRCL $89.65B65
- Viking HoldingsVIK $40.22B66
- Expedia GroupEXPE $29.74B72
- Trip.com GroupTCOM $28.74B58
- Hanjin Kal180640.KS $10.19B43
- Norwegian Cruise Line HoldingsNCLH $8.64B53
ETFs that hold Carnival
Held by 48 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amundi Global Luxury UCITS ETF EUR AccGLUX | 4.01% | 0.35% | €411.57M |
| iShares S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Sector UCITS ETFQDVK | 0.79% | 0.15% | €719.53M |
| iShares Edge MSCI USA Value Factor UCITS ETFQDVI | 0.66% | 0.20% | €2.9B |
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| First Trust US Large Cap Core AlphaDEX UCITS ETFFTGU | 0.53% | 0.75% | €140.24M |
| iShares MSCI USA Mid-Cap Equal Weight UCITS ETFQDVC | 0.41% | 0.20% | €268.74M |
| WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth UCITS ETF USD AccWTEM | 0.25% | 0.38% | €1.5B |
| iShares MSCI World Mid-Cap Equal Weight UCITS ETF USDIS3T | 0.16% | 0.30% | €408.01M |
| Amundi MSCI USA ESG Selection Extra UCITS ETF DR USD (D)LESU | 0.13% | 0.15% | €605.46M |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 30 Nov 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 11 Apr 2025)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.