Dutch Bros stock
BROSNYSEDutch Bros Inc., Consumer CyclicalISIN US26701L1008
47Score 47 out of 100, Weak
Price and trend
29 / 100
Price history
−41% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 5 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 36% below it.
Since September 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 31).
The price is 54% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 5 years: 70% (November 2021 to September 2023).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$40.37
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$52.35
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)31
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$33.73
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$73.31
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Dutch Bros Inc. belongs to the Restaurants industry (United States) and, with a market value of $6.33B, is number 17 of 42 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $1.64B (up 27.9% year on year) and earnings of $79.84M (up 126.5%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $2.13B (up 29.8%) and adjusted earnings per share of $0.93 (up 22%).
Show more
- MEQIRI Score 47 out of 100 (Weak): rank 494 of 602 in Consumer Cyclical, median 61.
- The P/E is 45.6 (Restaurants median 26, own median of recent years 124.9).
- Our model puts fair value at $38.77, with the price 10% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Growing faster than its industryRevenue up 38% a year since 2020, Restaurants median 12.7%.Growth 83
- Analysts expect strong earnings growthUp 23.3% a year through 2028 (estimates from 14 analysts).Growth 83
Weaknesses
- DilutionShare count up 168% since 2020.Capital allocation 34
- Share price fell sharplyDown 40% over the last 12 months.Momentum 16
- Volatile share priceVolatility 55% a year over the last 12 months.Stability 46
Its standout strength is growth, while technical analysis and momentum hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 46 to 47.
The fundamentals are in the middle range.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 36 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- price far below its 52-week high
- high price swings
- weak momentum
What lowers it
- price not overheated over the past year
Valuation
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedClosing price of 11 Nov 2026, used by the daily score.
In our model the price counts as cheap below $27.69 and expensive above $64.62 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $58.33 (cash-flow model) and $19.22 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $33.17, at 7.8% it would be $47.24.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (26).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 30.7% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown strongly since 2019, at around 38% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 26%, operating 10%, net 5%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterDebt is elevated. Keep an eye on the interest burden and refinancing.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 11 Feb 2027in 91 days
- Last reported
- 4 Nov 2026EPS reported $0.25 (expected $0.24)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Analysts have cut their 2027 earnings estimate by 8.4% since 15 Oct 2026. Falling estimates often precede bad news.
- Earnings per share
- $0.93−3.3%
- Revenue
- $2.13B−0.3%
- Earnings per share
- $1.17−8.4%
- Revenue
- $2.65B−0.2%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook raised
Share price after the results: −16.8%2026 guidance raised: same shop sales growth of 5% to 6%, net incremental revenue of about $25 million, capex raised to $350 million to $370 million.
“For the remainder of 2026, we expect this to drive net incremental total revenue of approximately $25 million inclusive of an approximately $5 million reduction in franchise and other revenue. We also expect incremental adjusted EBITDA of approximately $5 million for the balance of the year.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 5 Aug 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
One insider bought on the open market in the last 6 months, $205,470 in total. 2 insiders sold, $314.26M in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
- Boersma Travis, DM Trust Aggregator, LLCSale
4 Nov 2026, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman of Board
- Shares
- 672,932
- Price
- $44.73
- Value
- $30.1M
- Boersma Travis, DM Individual Aggregator, LLCSale
4 Nov 2026, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman of Board
- Shares
- 359,284
- Price
- $44.73
- Value
- $16.07M
- Boersma Travis, DM Trust Aggregator, LLCSale
3 Nov 2026, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman of Board
- Shares
- 256,708
- Price
- $44.06
- Value
- $11.31M
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- Boersma Travis, DM Individual Aggregator, LLCSale
3 Nov 2026, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman of Board
- Shares
- 137,060
- Price
- $44.06
- Value
- $6.04M
- Boersma Travis, DM Trust Aggregator, LLCSale
2 Nov 2026, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman of Board
- Shares
- 627,692
- Price
- $44.55
- Value
- $27.96M
- Boersma Travis, DM Individual Aggregator, LLCSale
2 Nov 2026, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman of Board
- Shares
- 335,136
- Price
- $44.55
- Value
- $14.93M
- Boersma Travis, DM Trust Aggregator, LLCSale
30 Oct 2026, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman of Board
- Shares
- 37,470
- Price
- $44.09
- Value
- $1.65M
- Boersma Travis, DM Individual Aggregator, LLCSale
30 Oct 2026, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman of Board
- Shares
- 20,008
- Price
- $44.09
- Value
- $882,121
- Boersma Travis, DM Trust Aggregator, LLCSale
29 Oct 2026, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman of Board
- Shares
- 266,000
- Price
- $44.03
- Value
- $11.71M
- Boersma Travis, DM Individual Aggregator, LLCSale
29 Oct 2026, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman of Board
- Shares
- 142,023
- Price
- $44.03
- Value
- $6.25M
- Boersma Travis, DM Trust Aggregator, LLCSale
20 Oct 2026, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman of Board
- Shares
- 94,978
- Price
- $44.01
- Value
- $4.18M
- Boersma Travis, DM Individual Aggregator, LLCSale
20 Oct 2026, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman of Board
- Shares
- 50,709
- Price
- $44.01
- Value
- $2.23M
- Penegor Todd AllanPurchase
13 Aug 2026, Board
- Shares
- 2,000
- Price
- $51.56
- Value
- $103,120
- Boersma Travis, DM Trust Aggregator, LLCSale
11 Jun 2026, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman of Board
- Shares
- 488,945
- Price
- $63.02
- Value
- $30.82M
- Boersma Travis, DM Individual Aggregator, LLCSale
11 Jun 2026, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman of Board
- Shares
- 261,055
- Price
- $63.02
- Value
- $16.45M
- Boersma Travis, DM Trust Aggregator, LLCSale
10 Jun 2026, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman of Board
- Shares
- 488,945
- Price
- $60.39
- Value
- $29.53M
- Boersma Travis, DM Individual Aggregator, LLCSale
10 Jun 2026, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman of Board
- Shares
- 261,054
- Price
- $60.37
- Value
- $15.76M
- Barone ChristineSale
10 Jun 2026, CEO and President
- Shares
- 42,031
- Price
- $60.13
- Value
- $2.53M
- Boersma Travis, DM Trust Aggregator, LLCSale
1 Jun 2026, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman of Board
- Shares
- 291,607
- Price
- $58.26
- Value
- $16.99M
- Boersma Travis, DM Individual Aggregator, LLCSale
1 Jun 2026, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman of Board
- Shares
- 155,692
- Price
- $58.26
- Value
- $9.07M
- Boersma Travis, DM Trust Aggregator, LLCSale
29 May 2026, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman of Board
- Shares
- 197,338
- Price
- $58.27
- Value
- $11.5M
- Boersma Travis, DM Individual Aggregator, LLCSale
29 May 2026, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman of Board
- Shares
- 105,362
- Price
- $58.27
- Value
- $6.14M
- Boersma Travis, DM Trust Aggregator, LLCSale
28 May 2026, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman of Board
- Shares
- 133,728
- Price
- $56.16
- Value
- $7.51M
- Boersma Travis, DM Individual Aggregator, LLCSale
28 May 2026, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman of Board
- Shares
- 71,399
- Price
- $56.16
- Value
- $4.01M
- Boersma Travis, DM Trust Aggregator, LLCSale
27 May 2026, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman of Board
- Shares
- 355,217
- Price
- $56.21
- Value
- $19.97M
- Boersma Travis, DM Individual Aggregator, LLCSale
27 May 2026, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman of Board
- Shares
- 189,655
- Price
- $56.21
- Value
- $10.66M
- Penegor Todd AllanPurchase
15 May 2026, Board
- Shares
- 2,000
- Price
- $51.18
- Value
- $102,350
Partial trades from one filing are shown in one row, with the average price.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Dutch Bros
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
602 rated companies in Consumer Cyclical
- This company
- 47
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Restaurants
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan)2702.T $7.82B73
- Guming1364.HK $7.12B78
- CAVA GroupCAVA $6.99B49
- Haidilao International Holding6862.HK $6.83B69
- Cheesecake FactoryCAKE $5.47B65
- Skylark Holdings3197.T $5.25B63
- WingstopWING $4.51B78
- Shake ShackSHAK $3.03B45
ETFs that hold Dutch Bros
Held by 10 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| State Street SPDR S&P 400 U.S. Mid Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)SPY4 | 0.13% | 0.30% | €5.27B |
| iShares MSCI USA Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFSXRG | 0.07% | 0.43% | €2.48B |
| State Street SPDR MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRS | 0.05% | 0.45% | €1.53B |
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| iShares MSCI World Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFCBUG | 0.03% | 0.35% | €434.1M |
| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.02% | 0.30% | €944.34M |
| UBS MSCI USA Select Factor Mix UCITS ETF USD accUSUE | 0.01% | 0.25% | €175.89M |
| Vanguard ESG Global All Cap UCITS ETF (USD) AccumulatingV3AA | 0.01% | 0.24% | €1.69B |
| Vanguard FTSE Global All-Cap UCITS ETF Accum USDVGLA | 0.00% | 0.07% | €3.9B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 6 Nov 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.