Cheesecake Factory stock
CAKENASDAQThe Cheesecake Factory Incorporated, Consumer CyclicalISIN US1630721017
65Score 65 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
81 / 100
Price history
+131% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 30% above it.
Since February 2026 the 50-day line has been above the 200-day line; the trend has turned up.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 47).
The price is 9.5% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 82% (April 2007 to November 2008).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$107.75
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$82.00
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)47
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$43.14
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$117.29
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated belongs to the Restaurants industry (United States) and, with a market value of $5.29B, is number 18 of 42 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $3.75B (up 4.7% year on year) and earnings of $148.43M (down 5.3%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $4.1B (up 9.2%) and adjusted earnings per share of $4.68 (up 24.2%).
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- MEQIRI Score 65 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 245 of 603 in Consumer Cyclical, median 61.
- The P/E is 26.3 (Restaurants median 26, own median of recent years 16.4).
- Our model puts fair value at $123.53, with the price 11% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Earnings turn into cashFree cash flow 106% of earnings over the last 12 months.Fundamentals 77
Weaknesses
- High debtDebt 3.74 times equity (latest quarter), Restaurants median 1.36.Stability 41
Its standout strengths are momentum and technical analysis, while stability holds the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Fundamentals are strong, with stable profits and strong cash generation.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk medium
How well MEQIRI warnsIn the middle among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 20 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- price up very strongly over the past year
Valuation
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedClosing price of 11 Nov 2026, used by the daily score.
In our model the price counts as cheap below $95.03 and expensive above $176.48 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $141.99 (cash-flow model) and $105.07 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $110.84, at 7.8% it would be $142.64.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (26).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 29 Sep 2026, revenue rose 7.9% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown solidly since 2006, at about 6% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 78%, operating 5%, net 4%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterMeaningfully leveraged, but the interest bill is comfortably covered.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 17 Feb 2027in 96 days
- Last reported
- 27 Oct 2026EPS reported $1.02 (expected $0.96)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Analysts have raised their 2027 earnings estimate by 3.2% since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $4.68+2.9%
- Revenue
- $4.1B+1.8%
- Earnings per share
- $5.21+3.2%
- Revenue
- $4.44B+2.5%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook confirmed
Share price after the results: −4.0%For 2027 Cheesecake Factory guides to roughly 4.425 billion in revenue and a 6.0% to 6.1% net income margin, in line with its usual long term target of 25 to 35 basis points of annual margin expansion, staying deliberately cautious despite the recent strong trends.
“Based on these assumptions, we would expect full year net income margin of 6.0% to 6.1% at the sales estimate provided, consistent with our long-term algorithm of 25 to 35 basis points of annual margin expansion.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 27 Oct 2026 (fiscal Q3 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases in the last 6 months. 8 insiders sold, $25.55M in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
- Clark Matthew EliotSale
29 Oct 2026, EXEC VP, CFO
- Shares
- 23,832
- Price
- $113.31
- Value
- $2.7M
- Cappello Alexander LSale
29 Oct 2026, Board
- Shares
- 425
- Price
- $113.71
- Value
- $48,327
- May ScarlettSale
29 Oct 2026, EVP, GENERAL COUNSEL
- Shares
- 2,939
- Price
- $114.12
- Value
- $335,402
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- Meyer Janice L.Sale
17 Aug 2026, Board
- Shares
- 1,958
- Price
- $109.36
- Value
- $214,122
- Gordon David MSale
10 Aug 2026, PRESIDENT
- Shares
- 31,950
- Price
- $110.03
- Value
- $3.52M
- Ames Edie ASale
10 Aug 2026, Board
- Shares
- 3,000
- Price
- $106.95
- Value
- $320,850
- Overton DavidSale
5 Aug 2026, CHAIRMAN AND C.E.O.
- Shares
- 94,145
- Price
- $106.27
- Value
- $10M
- Cappello Alexander LSale
4 Aug 2026, Board
- Shares
- 64
- Price
- $106.08
- Value
- $6,789
- Cappello Alexander LSale
3 Aug 2026, Board
- Shares
- 59
- Price
- $104.20
- Value
- $6,148
- Cappello Alexander LSale
31 Jul 2026, Board
- Shares
- 100
- Price
- $103.04
- Value
- $10,304
- May ScarlettSale
31 Jul 2026, EVP, GENERAL COUNSEL
- Shares
- 7,978
- Price
- $102.66
- Value
- $819,021
- Cappello Alexander LSale
30 Jul 2026, Board
- Shares
- 2,095
- Price
- $101.50
- Value
- $212,643
- Hanscom Ashley WSale
30 Jul 2026, PRINCIPAL ACCOUNTING OFFICER
- Shares
- 3,500
- Price
- $100.00
- Value
- $350,000
- Clark Matthew EliotSale
30 Jul 2026, EXEC VP, CFO
- Shares
- 68,900
- Price
- $99.30
- Value
- $6.84M
- Cappello Alexander LSale
2 Jun 2026, Board
- Shares
- 2,490
- Price
- $64.90
- Value
- $161,601
Partial trades from one filing are shown in one row, with the average price.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Cheesecake Factory
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
603 rated companies in Consumer Cyclical
- This company
- 65
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Restaurants
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Guming1364.HK $7.12B78
- CAVA GroupCAVA $6.99B49
- Haidilao International Holding6862.HK $6.83B69
- Dutch BrosBROS $6.58B47
- Skylark Holdings3197.T $5.25B63
- WingstopWING $4.51B78
- Shake ShackSHAK $3.03B45
- DODOC.VI $2.75B74
ETFs that hold Cheesecake Factory
Held by 13 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avantis Global Small Cap Value UCITS ETFAVWS | 0.53% | 0.39% | €1.47B |
| iShares S&P SmallCap 600 UCITS ETFIUS3 | 0.30% | 0.30% | €2.28B |
| L&G Russell 2000 US Small Cap Quality UCITS ETFETLZ | 0.19% | 0.30% | €185.82M |
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| Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF 1CXRS2 | 0.17% | 0.30% | €2.17B |
| State Street SPDR Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRR | 0.17% | 0.30% | €4.22B |
| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.10% | 0.30% | €944.34M |
| iShares MSCI USA Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFSXRG | 0.06% | 0.43% | €2.48B |
| State Street SPDR MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRS | 0.06% | 0.45% | €1.53B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 30 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 30 Nov 2023)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.