Alibaba Group Holding stock
BABANYSEAlibaba Group Holding Limited, Consumer CyclicalISIN US01609W1027
46Score 46 out of 100, Weak
Price and trend
33 / 100
Price history
−40% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 12 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 23% below it.
Since April 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 42).
The price is 47% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 12 years: 80% (October 2020 to October 2022).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$107.22
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$123.19
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)42
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$94.36
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$177.18
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Alibaba Group Holding Limited belongs to the Specialty Retail industry (China) and, with a market value of $234.74B, is number 2 of 86 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- American depositary receipt (ADR): 1 ADR = 8 shares.
- In fiscal 2026 it reported revenue of $153.51B (up 2.7% year on year) and earnings of $15.54B (down 20.4%).
Show more
- MEQIRI Score 46 out of 100 (Weak): rank 496 of 596 in Consumer Cyclical, median 61.
- The P/E is 21.2 (Specialty Retail median 22.8, own median of recent years 26).
- Our model puts fair value at $157.52, with the price 40% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Analysts expect strong earnings growthUp 32% a year through 2029 (estimates from 19 analysts).
- Share buybacksShare count down 14% since 2021.Capital allocation 51
- Consistently profitableProfit in all 10 fiscal years from 2017 to 2026.Fundamentals 58
Weaknesses
- Margin fallingOperating margin 5.8%, average of the prior years 12% (to 2025).Profitability 42
- Negative free cash flowFree cash flow −$11.62B over the last 12 months.Fundamentals 58
- Share price fell sharplyDown 41% over the last 12 months.Momentum 12
Its standout strengths are valuation and stability, while growth and momentum hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 47 to 46.
The fundamentals are in the middle range.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among the 100 largest stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 17 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 9 in 100.
What drives the risk
- price far below its 52-week high
- weak momentum
- high price swings
What lowers it
- price not overheated over the past year
- very large company
Valuation
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $112.52 and expensive above $262.54 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $213.35 (cash-flow model) and $101.69 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.6%. At 8.6% the fair value would be $140.51, at 6.6% it would be $182.41.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but score below 50, weak growth.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (22.8).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Jun 2026, revenue rose 4.3% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown strongly since 2007, at around 42% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2026: gross 40%, operating 6%, net 10%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterThe balance sheet is solid, with low debt and comfortable interest coverage.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 19 Nov 2026in 6 days
- Last reported
- 20 Aug 2026below expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- 43.83+0.5%
- Revenue
- $168.57B+0.1%
- Earnings per share
- 61.11−0.4%
- Revenue
- $189.8B+0.2%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook confirmed
Share price after the results: −7.4%AI and Cloud are expected to keep growing strongly, with EBITDA margin expanding and segment losses narrowing in coming quarters, and the RMB 380 billion investment plan progressing as expected.
“So indeed, last February, we announced a 3-year capital investment plan with total investment of RMB 380 billion as of the end of the June quarter this year, we had already spent RMB 190 billion with progress broadly in line with our expectations.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 20 Aug 2026 (fiscal Q1 2027), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
2 insiders bought on the open market in the last 6 months, $25.69M in total. 5 insiders sold, $84.36M in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
- Jiang FangSale
30 Sept 2026, Chief People Officer
- Shares
- 885,272
- Price
- $13.55
- Value
- $12M
- Yu SiyingSale
25 Sept 2026, General Counsel
- Shares
- 6,764
- Price
- $13.58
- Value
- $91,855
- Jiang FangSale
25 Sept 2026, Chief People Officer
- Shares
- 4,889
- Price
- $13.57
- Value
- $66,344
Show 10 more
- Xu HongSale
25 Sept 2026, Chief Financial Officer
- Shares
- 103,046
- Price
- $13.68
- Value
- $1.41M
- Tsai Joseph CPurchase
25 Aug 2026, Board
- Shares
- 720,000
- Price
- $14.47
- Value
- $10.42M
- Tsai Joseph CPurchase
24 Aug 2026, Board
- Shares
- 720,000
- Price
- $14.29
- Value
- $10.29M
- Wu YongmingPurchase
24 Aug 2026, Chief Executive Officer
- Shares
- 350,000
- Price
- $14.24
- Value
- $4.98M
- Evans J. MichaelSale
29 Jun 2026, President
- Shares
- 5,543,936
- Price
- $11.87
- Value
- $65.78M
- Evans J. MichaelSale
29 Jun 2026, President
- Shares
- 216,064
- Price
- $11.95
- Value
- $2.58M
- Jiang Fan (FJ)Sale
25 Jun 2026, CEO of Business Group
- Shares
- 13,579
- Price
- $12.10
- Value
- $164,306
- Xu HongSale
25 Jun 2026, Chief Financial Officer
- Shares
- 175,054
- Price
- $12.15
- Value
- $2.13M
- Yu SiyingSale
25 Jun 2026, General Counsel
- Shares
- 6,772
- Price
- $12.10
- Value
- $81,941
- Jiang FangSale
25 Jun 2026, Chief People Officer
- Shares
- 4,898
- Price
- $12.09
- Value
- $59,217
Shares and prices per ordinary share as filed with the SEC, not per depositary receipt (1 ADR = 8 shares). Filings per depositary receipt are converted to ordinary shares.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Alibaba Group Holding
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
596 rated companies in Consumer Cyclical
- This company
- 46
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Specialty Retail
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Amazon.comAMZN $2.89T70
- PDD HoldingsPDD $110.36B69
- MercadoLibreMELI $74.78B59
- O'Reilly AutomotiveORLY $73.44B71
- Meituan3690.HK $56.48B39
- Alimentation Couche-TardATD.TO $53.14B68
- eBayEBAY $52.74B75
- AutoZoneAZO $52.34B70
ETFs that hold Alibaba Group Holding
Held by 62 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| iShares BIC 50 UCITS ETFIQQ9 | 13.53% | 0.74% | €99.3M |
| Amundi MSCI China ESG Selection Extra UCITS ETF DistLHKG | 13.29% | 0.65% | €473.19M |
| Deka MSCI China ex A Shares UCITS ETFEL46 | 11.37% | 0.65% | €74.12M |
Show 5 more
| UBS Solactive China Technology UCITS ETF USD accUIC2 | 10.54% | 0.47% | €255.87M |
| iShares Dow Jones China Offshore 50 UCITS ETF (DE)EXXU | 9.72% | 0.62% | €40.6M |
| HSBC MSCI China UCITS ETFH4ZP | 9.21% | 0.28% | €865.21M |
| Franklin FTSE China UCITS ETFFLXC | 9.10% | 0.19% | €1.3B |
| iShares China Large Cap UCITS ETFIQQC | 8.72% | 0.74% | €701.83M |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2026, period end 31 Mar 2026
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak since 10 Nov 2026, previously Neutral
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.