Vistra stock
VSTNYSEVistra Corp., UtilitiesISIN US92840M1027
58Score 58 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
38 / 100
Price history
−26% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 10 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 12% below it.
Since January 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 45).
The price is 26% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 10 years: 54% (November 2019 to March 2020).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$143.62
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$152.22
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)45
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$112.89
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$180.18
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Vistra Corp. belongs to the Independent Power Producers industry (United States) and, with a market value of $44.79B, is number 2 of 23 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $17.74B (up 3% year on year) and earnings of $944M (down 64.5%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $21.87B (up 23.3%) and adjusted earnings per share of $8.58 (up 294.9%).
Show more
- MEQIRI Score 58 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 58 of 201 in Utilities, median 54.
- The P/E is 17.9 (Utilities sector median 20.5, own median of recent years 13.7).
- Our model puts fair value at $143.93, with the price 7% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Share buybacksShare count down 31% since 2020.Capital allocation 82
- Earnings turn into cashFree cash flow 157% of earnings over the last 12 months.Fundamentals 63
Weaknesses
- High debtDebt 3.35 times equity (latest quarter), Independent Power Producers median 1.79.Stability 27
- Interest barely coveredOperating profit covers interest only 2 times.Stability 27
- Volatile share priceVolatility 53% a year over the last 12 months.Stability 27
Its standout strengths are growth and capital allocation, while stability and momentum hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 57 to 58.
The fundamentals are in the middle range.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among stocks ranked 101 to 1,000.
From 2016 to 2025, 23 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 15 in 100.
What drives the risk
- high growth grade (crashed more often in the backtest)
- weak momentum
Valuation
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $102.81 and expensive above $239.88 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $135.25 (cash-flow model) and $152.60 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is slightly below both parts; given how much the stock swings, that still counts as fair.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 10.8%. At 11.8% the fair value would be $134.85, at 9.8% it would be $156.09.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the sector P/E (20.5).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 19.8% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown solidly since 2012, at about 9% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 33%, operating 11%, net 5%. Last 12 months: net 13%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterDebt is elevated. Keep an eye on the interest burden and refinancing.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 25 Feb 2027in 105 days
- Last reported
- 6 Nov 2026EPS reported $3.23 (expected $2.98)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $8.58−0.8%
- Revenue
- $21.87B−2.6%
- Earnings per share
- $10.06−1.8%
- Revenue
- $23.63B−4.1%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook raised
Share price after the results: +18.6%Vistra narrowed its 2026 guidance for adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow, each with a higher midpoint than the original range, and now sees a meaningfully higher earnings contribution from the Cogentrix acquisition than at announcement.
“With this record third quarter performance, combined with our results year-to-date and the recent closing of the Cogentrix acquisition, we are narrowing our guidance ranges for our 2026 adjusted EBITDA to $7.1 billion to $7.5 billion and our 2026 adjusted free cash flow before growth to $4.3 billion to $4.7 billion, …”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 6 Nov 2026 (fiscal Q3 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
One insider bought on the open market in the last 6 months, $1.17M in total. 7 insiders sold, $25.88M in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
- Moldovan Kristopher E.Sale
7 Oct 2026, EVP and CFO
- Shares
- 20,000
- Price
- $165.00
- Value
- $3.3M
- Hudson Scott ASale
6 Oct 2026, EVP & President Vistra Retail
- Shares
- 22,222
- Price
- $160.14
- Value
- $3.56M
- Moldovan Kristopher E.Sale
8 Sept 2026, EVP and CFO
- Shares
- 20,000
- Price
- $151.03
- Value
- $3.02M
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- Hudson Scott ASale
8 Sept 2026, EVP & President Vistra Retail
- Shares
- 44,444
- Price
- $151.82
- Value
- $6.75M
- Burke James APurchase
1 Sept 2026, President and CEO
- Shares
- 4,465
- Price
- $135.25
- Value
- $603,891
- Burke James APurchase
31 Aug 2026, President and CEO
- Shares
- 2,200
- Price
- $135.99
- Value
- $299,178
- Burke James APurchase
24 Aug 2026, President and CEO
- Shares
- 2,000
- Price
- $135.00
- Value
- $270,000
- Sult John RSale
18 Jun 2026, Board
- Shares
- 6,500
- Price
- $170.00
- Value
- $1.11M
- Acosta ArciliaSale
18 Jun 2026, Board
- Shares
- 15,000
- Price
- $167.52
- Value
- $2.51M
- Helm Scott BSale
16 Jun 2026, Board
- Shares
- 25,000
- Price
- $160.00
- Value
- $4M
- Barbas Paul MSale
15 Jun 2026, Board
- Shares
- 244
- Price
- $153.00
- Value
- $37,332
- Barbas Paul MSale
12 Jun 2026, Board
- Shares
- 244
- Price
- $147.93
- Value
- $36,095
- Montemayor MargaretSale
2 Jun 2026, SVP, Chief Accounting Officer
- Shares
- 4,600
- Price
- $160.00
- Value
- $736,000
- Montemayor MargaretSale
27 May 2026, SVP, Chief Accounting Officer
- Shares
- 5,000
- Price
- $164.96
- Value
- $824,800
Partial trades from one filing are shown in one row, with the average price.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Vistra
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
201 rated companies in Utilities
- This company
- 58
- Sector median
- 54
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Independent Power Producers
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Constellation EnergyCEG $97.34B56
- Adani PowerADANIPOWER.NS $42.81B66
- CGN Power003816.SZ $32.47B49
- NRG EnergyNRG $20.5B54
- Adani Energy SolutionsADANIENSOL.NS $18.5B65
- Talen EnergyTLN $18.04B42
- Power Assets Holdings0006.HK $17.9B65
- Huaneng Power International600011.SS $17.72B48
ETFs that hold Vistra
Held by 60 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| iShares S&P 500 Utilities Sector UCITS ETF2B7A | 3.06% | 0.15% | €1.04B |
| State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Utilities Select Sector UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPDU | 3.02% | 0.15% | €164.72M |
| Xtrackers MSCI World Utilities UCITS ETF 1CXDWU | 1.79% | 0.25% | €890.44M |
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| JPM Global Equity Multi-Factor UCITS ETF USD AccJPGL | 0.17% | 0.19% | €278.91M |
| Xtrackers S&P 500 Equal Weight UCITS ETF 1CXDEW | 0.17% | 0.15% | €14.88B |
| Deka MSCI USA LC UCITS ETFEL4I | 0.08% | 0.30% | €124.89M |
| UBS Core MSCI USA hEUR UCITS ETF EUR accUBUJ | 0.07% | 0.06% | €738.52M |
| Invesco MSCI World Equal Weight UCITS ETF Acc AccumUSDMWEQ | 0.07% | 0.20% | €2.06B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral since 7 Nov 2026, previously Weak
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.