Vistra stock: fair value
VSTThe fair value of Vistra under our model is $143.93, the price is 7% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $102.81 and expensive above $239.88 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $135.25 (cash-flow model) and $152.60 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is slightly below both parts; given how much the stock swings, that still counts as fair.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 10.8%. At 11.8% the fair value would be $134.85, at 9.8% it would be $156.09.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the sector P/E (20.5).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 10.8% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.56 times a risk premium of 4.5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $135.25 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 10.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 10.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.98B | extrapolated at 31.3% | 0.9025 | $1.78B |
| 2027 | $2.43B | extrapolated at 23.1% | 0.8145 | $1.98B |
| 2028 | $2.85B | extrapolated at 17.3% | 0.7351 | $2.1B |
| 2029 | $3.23B | extrapolated at 13.3% | 0.6634 | $2.14B |
| 2030 | $3.57B | extrapolated at 10.4% | 0.5987 | $2.14B |
| 2031 | $3.87B | extrapolated at 8.5% | 0.5403 | $2.09B |
| 2032 | $4.14B | extrapolated at 7.1% | 0.4876 | $2.02B |
| 2033 | $4.39B | extrapolated at 6.1% | 0.4401 | $1.93B |
| 2034 | $4.63B | extrapolated at 5.4% | 0.3971 | $1.84B |
| 2035 | $4.86B | extrapolated at 4.9% | 0.3584 | $1.74B |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $19.76B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (10.8% − 3.8%) | $72.35B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3584) | $25.93B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $45.69B |
| Shares (diluted) | 337.85M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $135.25 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $7.44 |
| × 20.5 (sector P/E) | $152.60 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $143.93 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral since 7 Nov 2026, previously Weak
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.