CGN Power stock: fair value
003816.SZThe fair value of CGN Power under our model is $0.43, the price is 63% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $0.30 and expensive above $0.71 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $0.16 (cash-flow model) and $0.69 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 12.6%. At 13.6% the fair value would be $0.42, at 11.6% it would be $0.43.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (22).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 12.6% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 2 times a risk premium of 5.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $0.16 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 12.6%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 12.6%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.01B | extrapolated at −7.8% | 0.8882 | $897.95M |
| 2027 | $962.61M | extrapolated at −4.8% | 0.7889 | $759.36M |
| 2028 | $937.02M | extrapolated at −2.7% | 0.7006 | $656.53M |
| 2029 | $926.09M | extrapolated at −1.2% | 0.6223 | $576.3M |
| 2030 | $924.94M | extrapolated at −0.1% | 0.5527 | $511.23M |
| 2031 | $930.54M | extrapolated at 0.6% | 0.4909 | $456.81M |
| 2032 | $940.94M | extrapolated at 1.1% | 0.4360 | $410.26M |
| 2033 | $954.82M | extrapolated at 1.5% | 0.3873 | $369.76M |
| 2034 | $971.29M | extrapolated at 1.7% | 0.3440 | $334.08M |
| 2035 | $989.76M | extrapolated at 1.9% | 0.3055 | $302.36M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $5.27B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (12.6% − 2.3%) | $9.85B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3055) | $3.01B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $8.28B |
| Shares (diluted) | 51.60B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $0.16 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.03 |
| × 22 (industry P/E) | $0.69 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $0.43 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak since 11 Nov 2026, previously Neutral
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 11 Nov 2026, previously Overvalued
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.