Turning Point Brands stock
TPBNYSETurning Point Brands, Inc., Consumer DefensiveISIN US90041L1052
48Score 48 out of 100, Weak
Price and trend
30 / 100
Price history
−44% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 11 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 34% below it.
Since April 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 34).
The price is 61% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 11 years: 73% (July 2019 to March 2020).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$64.04
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$84.18
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)34
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$55.25
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$142.98
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Turning Point Brands, Inc. belongs to the Tobacco industry (United States) and, with a market value of $1.12B, is number 12 of 15 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $463.06M (up 28.4% year on year) and earnings of $58.17M (up 46.1%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $564.69M (up 21.9%) and adjusted earnings per share of $1.25 (down 62.7%).
Show more
- MEQIRI Score 48 out of 100 (Weak): rank 249 of 295 in Consumer Defensive, median 62.
- The P/E is 41.3 (Tobacco median 15.7, own median of recent years 23.5).
- Our model puts fair value at $17.47, with the price 237% above it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Consistently profitableProfit in all 10 fiscal years from 2016 to 2025.Fundamentals 82
- Share buybacksShare count down 6% since 2020.
- High return on capitalReturn on invested capital 18.1% in fiscal 2025, Tobacco median 11.5%.Profitability 56
Weaknesses
- Above fair valuePrice 237% above the fair value of $17.47.Valuation 31
- Richly valuedP/E 41.3, Tobacco median 15.7, own median 23.5.Valuation 31
- Share price fell sharplyDown 45% over the last 12 months.Momentum 27
Its standout strength is fundamentals, while technical analysis and momentum hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Fundamentals are strong, with stable profits and strong cash generation.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 36 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- price far below its 52-week high
- high price swings
What lowers it
- solid fundamentals
- price not overheated over the past year
Valuation
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedClosing price of 11 Nov 2026, used by the daily score.
In our model the price counts as cheap below $12.48 and expensive above $29.12 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $13.71 (cash-flow model) and $21.23 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $16.43, at 7.8% it would be $19.02.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (15.7).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 23.8% on the twelve months before. Up to 2021 the bars include businesses that were later spun off or sold. On a comparable basis, as restated in the SEC annual reports, revenue grew 8.1% a year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 57%, operating 21%, net 13%. Last 12 months: net 5%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterModerate debt, and interest is adequately covered.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 1 Mar 2027in 109 days
- Last reported
- 9 Nov 2026EPS reported $0.41 (expected $0.20)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $1.250.0%
- Revenue
- $564.69M0.0%
- Earnings per share
- $1.940.0%
- Revenue
- $638.98M0.0%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook raised
Share price after the results: +15.0%Modern Oral guidance raised: gross sales of $280 million to $300 million (from $220 million to $240 million), net sales of $210 million to $225 million (from $180 million to $190 million); new EBITDA guidance of $70 million to $90 million.
“We now expect gross sales of $280 million to $300 million, up from a previous range of $220 million to $240 million and net sales of $210 million to $225 million, up from our previous range of $180 million to $190 million.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 7 May 2026 (fiscal Q1 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases or sales in the last 6 months.
- Wigginton BrianSale
12 May 2026, Sr VP Finance & CAO
- Shares
- 4,000
- Price
- $91.67
- Value
- $366,680
- Flynn AndrewSale
4 Mar 2026, Chief Financial Officer
- Shares
- 2,000
- Price
- $97.57
- Value
- $195,140
- Glazek David EdwardSale
19 Dec 2025, Executive Chairman
- Shares
- 30,000
- Price
- $110.26
- Value
- $3.31M
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- Diao H.C. CharlesSale
15 Dec 2025, Board
- Shares
- 2,000
- Price
- $108.20
- Value
- $216,400
- Baxter Gregory H.A.Sale
21 Nov 2025, Board
- Shares
- 1,500
- Price
- $98.23
- Value
- $147,345
- Usher StephenSale
20 Nov 2025, Board
- Shares
- 1,000
- Price
- $102.54
- Value
- $102,540
- Usher StephenSale
19 Nov 2025, Board
- Shares
- 1,000
- Price
- $101.00
- Value
- $101,000
- Cushman BrittaniSale
19 Nov 2025, Sr VP, General Counsel
- Shares
- 2,500
- Price
- $101.66
- Value
- $254,150
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Turning Point Brands
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
295 rated companies in Consumer Defensive
- This company
- 48
- Sector median
- 62
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Tobacco
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- KT&G033780.KS $13.44B65
- Smoore International Holdings6969.HK $6.64B45
- RLX TechnologyRLX $1.88B53
- Karelia TobaccoKARE.AT $1.3B82
- Air GlobalAIIR $1.22B50
- UniversalUVV $945.98M41
- Scandinavian Tobacco GroupSTG.CO $905.05M56
- Haypp GroupHAYPP.ST $487.02M49
ETFs that hold Turning Point Brands
Held by 8 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| State Street SPDR Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRR | 0.04% | 0.30% | €4.22B |
| Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF 1CXRS2 | 0.04% | 0.30% | €2.17B |
| L&G Russell 2000 US Small Cap Quality UCITS ETFETLZ | 0.02% | 0.30% | €185.82M |
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| State Street SPDR MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRS | 0.02% | 0.45% | €1.53B |
| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.01% | 0.30% | €944.34M |
| UBS MSCI USA Select Factor Mix UCITS ETF USD accUSUE | 0.00% | 0.25% | €175.89M |
| State Street SPDR MSCI All Country World Investable Market UCITS ETF (Acc)SPYI | 0.00% | 0.17% | €8.6B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak since 10 Nov 2026, previously Neutral
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.