Tivoli stock: fair value
TIV.COThe fair value of Tivoli under our model is $53.37, the price is 72% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $44.47 and expensive above $66.71 (uncertainty low, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $46.07 (cash-flow model) and $60.66 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.2%. At 8.2% the fair value would be $49.50, at 6.2% it would be $59.17.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (22.6).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.2%. Discounted at 7.2% (floor: government bond yield 2.2% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.87 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $46.07 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 7.2%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 7.2%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $12.37M | extrapolated at 5.6% | 0.9332 | $11.54M |
| 2027 | $12.93M | extrapolated at 4.6% | 0.8708 | $11.26M |
| 2028 | $13.43M | extrapolated at 3.8% | 0.8126 | $10.91M |
| 2029 | $13.87M | extrapolated at 3.3% | 0.7583 | $10.52M |
| 2030 | $14.29M | extrapolated at 3.0% | 0.7077 | $10.11M |
| 2031 | $14.68M | extrapolated at 2.7% | 0.6604 | $9.69M |
| 2032 | $15.05M | extrapolated at 2.6% | 0.6163 | $9.28M |
| 2033 | $15.42M | extrapolated at 2.4% | 0.5751 | $8.87M |
| 2034 | $15.78M | extrapolated at 2.4% | 0.5367 | $8.47M |
| 2035 | $16.14M | extrapolated at 2.3% | 0.5008 | $8.09M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $98.73M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.2%) / (7.2% − 2.2%) | $329.87M |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.5008) | $165.2M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $263.94M |
| Shares (diluted) | 5.73M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $46.07 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $2.68 |
| × 22.6 (industry P/E) | $60.66 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $53.37 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = DKK 6.7461)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 31 Oct 2025)
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.