Johnson Outdoors stock: fair value
JOUTThe fair value of Johnson Outdoors under our model is $105.57, the price is 55% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $81.21 and expensive above $150.82 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $87.45, at 7.8% it would be $132.80.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but weak growth.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; without earnings there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 8.8% (floor: government bond yield 3.8% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.87 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $105.57 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $42.38M | extrapolated at 17.8% | 0.9189 | $38.94M |
| 2027 | $48.13M | extrapolated at 13.6% | 0.8443 | $40.64M |
| 2028 | $53.26M | extrapolated at 10.7% | 0.7758 | $41.32M |
| 2029 | $57.84M | extrapolated at 8.6% | 0.7129 | $41.23M |
| 2030 | $61.99M | extrapolated at 7.2% | 0.6550 | $40.61M |
| 2031 | $65.82M | extrapolated at 6.2% | 0.6019 | $39.61M |
| 2032 | $69.41M | extrapolated at 5.5% | 0.5530 | $38.39M |
| 2033 | $72.87M | extrapolated at 5.0% | 0.5082 | $37.03M |
| 2034 | $76.25M | extrapolated at 4.6% | 0.4669 | $35.6M |
| 2035 | $79.59M | extrapolated at 4.4% | 0.4291 | $34.15M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $387.51M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (8.8% − 3.8%) | $1.65B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4291) | $709.16M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $1.1B |
| Shares (diluted) | 10.39M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $105.57 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $105.57 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 3 Oct 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 23 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.