Vail Resorts stock
MTNNYSEVail Resorts, Inc., Consumer CyclicalISIN US91879Q1094
62Score 62 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
84 / 100
Price history
+0.2% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 8.8% above it.
Since July 2026 the 50-day line has been above the 200-day line; the trend has turned up.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 57).
The price is 6.5% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 78% (October 2007 to March 2009).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$145.60
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$139.00
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)57
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$119.02
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$161.76
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Vail Resorts, Inc. belongs to the Casinos and Gaming industry (United States) and, with a market value of $5.4B, is number 14 of 33 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2026 it reported revenue of $2.84B (down 4.3% year on year) and earnings of $147.54M (down 47.3%).
- For fiscal 2027, analysts expect on average revenue of $3.04B (up 7%) and adjusted earnings per share of $5.61 (up 35.5%).
Show more
- MEQIRI Score 62 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 299 of 602 in Consumer Cyclical, median 61.
- The P/E is 36.7 (Casinos and Gaming median 17.4, own median of recent years 34.1).
- Our model puts fair value at $104.52, with the price 48% above it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Earnings turn into cashFree cash flow 211% of earnings over the last 12 months.Fundamentals 87
- High dividend yieldDividend yield 5.75%, Casinos and Gaming median 2.5%.Capital allocation 74
- Share buybacksShare count down 11% since 2021.Capital allocation 74
Weaknesses
- High debtDebt 6.14 times equity (latest quarter), Casinos and Gaming median 2.29.Stability 28
- Dividend not coveredPayouts over the last 12 months were 211% of earnings and 102% of free cash flow.
- Above fair valuePrice 48% above the fair value of $104.52.Valuation 38
Its standout strengths are fundamentals and technical analysis, while valuation and stability hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Fundamentals are strong, with stable profits and strong cash generation.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk low
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the lowest crash risk among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 14 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What lowers it
- solid fundamentals
- calm price action
- price near its 52-week high
Valuation
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedClosing price of 11 Nov 2026, used by the daily score.
In our model the price counts as cheap below $80.40 and expensive above $149.31 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $137.40 (cash-flow model) and $71.64 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $93.64, at 7.8% it would be $120.80.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (17.4).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In fiscal 2026, revenue fell 4.3% on the prior year. Revenue has grown solidly since 2007, at about 6% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2026: gross 42%, operating 15%, net 5%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterDebt is elevated. Keep an eye on the interest burden and refinancing.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 9 Dec 2026in 27 days
- Last reported
- 28 Sep 2026EPS reported −$5.34 (expected −$5.35)in line with expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $5.61−0.2%
- Revenue
- $3.04B0.0%
- Earnings per share
- $6.540.0%
- Revenue
- $3.15B0.0%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook mixed
Share price after the results: +3.8%Fiscal 2027 revenue is expected about 3% above the fiscal 2026 expectations, but the resort EBITDA margin of 27.3% is about 200 basis points below the original fiscal 2026 outlook.
“As a result, implied resort EBITDA margin of 27.3%, excluding onetime costs, is expected to be approximately 200 basis points below our original fiscal 2026 outlook.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 28 Sep 2026 (fiscal Q4 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases or sales in the last 6 months.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Vail Resorts
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
602 rated companies in Consumer Cyclical
- This company
- 62
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Casinos and Gaming
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Lottomatica GroupLTMC.MI $7.23B73
- Churchill DownsCHDN $6.9B70
- Caesars EntertainmentCZR $5.97B52
- Super Group (SGHC)SGHC $5.93B77
- Boyd GamingBYD $5.48B65
- FDJ UnitedFDJU.PA $4.5B57
- Marriott Vacations WorldwideVAC $4.04B52
- Société Anonyme des Bains de Mer et du Cercle des Étrangers à MonacoBAIN.PA $4.02B60
ETFs that hold Vail Resorts
Held by 16 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| UBS Global Gender Equality UCITS ETF hEUR accGGUE | 1.06% | 0.23% | €188.95M |
| WisdomTree US High Dividend UCITS ETF AccWTD9 | 0.39% | 0.29% | €182.46M |
| Amundi Global Luxury UCITS ETF EUR AccGLUX | 0.38% | 0.35% | €411.57M |
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| WisdomTree US Equity Income UCITS ETF EUR Hedged AccWTDY | 0.37% | 0.35% | €204.34M |
| State Street SPDR S&P 400 U.S. Mid Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)SPY4 | 0.17% | 0.30% | €5.27B |
| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.08% | 0.30% | €944.34M |
| iShares MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETFIUSN | 0.05% | 0.35% | €8.19B |
| iShares MSCI USA Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFSXRG | 0.03% | 0.43% | €2.48B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2026, period end 31 Jul 2026
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 30 Sep 2022)
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.