Churchill Downs stock
CHDNNASDAQChurchill Downs Incorporated, Consumer CyclicalISIN US1714841087
70Score 70 out of 100, Strong
Price and trend
66 / 100
Price history
+1.2% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 14% above it.
Since March 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Overheated: the price has risen very quickly lately (RSI 78).
The price is 14% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 63% (February 2020 to March 2020).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$84.53
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$87.98
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)78
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$73.95
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$117.59
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Churchill Downs Incorporated belongs to the Casinos and Gaming industry (United States) and, with a market value of $6.9B, is number 11 of 33 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $2.93B (up 7% year on year) and earnings of $379.7M (down 11%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $3.01B (up 3%) and adjusted earnings per share of $6.88 (up 10.5%).
Show more
- MEQIRI Score 70 out of 100 (Strong): rank 156 of 602 in Consumer Cyclical, median 61.
- The P/E is 15.6 (Casinos and Gaming median 17.4, own median of recent years 23.3).
- Our model puts fair value at $182.21, with the price 45% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Reliable dividendNo dividend cut for over 32 years.Capital allocation 75
- Share buybacksShare count down 11% since 2020.Capital allocation 75
- Earnings turn into cashFree cash flow 117% of earnings over the last 12 months.Fundamentals 76
Weaknesses
- Interest barely coveredOperating profit covers interest only 2.8 times.Stability 28
Its standout strengths are growth and valuation, while stability holds the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Fundamentals are strong, with stable profits and strong cash generation.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk medium
How well MEQIRI warnsIn the middle among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 20 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- high growth grade (crashed more often in the backtest)
Valuation
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $130.15 and expensive above $303.68 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $252.25 (cash-flow model) and $112.18 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $159.08, at 7.8% it would be $217.08.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but high risk.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (17.4).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 4.2% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown solidly since 2006, at about 11% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 34%, operating 25%, net 13%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterDebt is elevated. Keep an eye on the interest burden and refinancing.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 24 Feb 2027in 104 days
- Last reported
- 28 Oct 2026EPS reported $1.23 (expected $1.13)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $6.88−0.4%
- Revenue
- $3.01B−0.3%
- Earnings per share
- $7.42+1.0%
- Revenue
- $3.11B−0.2%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook confirmed
Share price after the results: +15.7%Churchill Downs confirms its 2026 and 2027 capital spending plans and still expects to close regional asset sale transactions by year-end, but does not give a specific revenue or earnings forecast.
“We now expect full year spend of $90 million to $100 million on maintenance capital in 2026.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 29 Oct 2026 (fiscal Q3 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases or sales in the last 6 months.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Churchill Downs
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
602 rated companies in Consumer Cyclical
- This company
- 70
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Casinos and Gaming
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Wynn ResortsWYNN $8.79B54
- AllwynALWN.AT $8.65B66
- MGM Resorts InternationalMGM $8.47B58
- Lottomatica GroupLTMC.MI $7.23B73
- Caesars EntertainmentCZR $5.97B52
- Super Group (SGHC)SGHC $5.93B77
- Vail ResortsMTN $5.52B62
- Boyd GamingBYD $5.48B65
ETFs that hold Churchill Downs
Held by 11 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amundi Global Sport and eSport UCITS ETF AccGENY | 2.15% | 0.45% | €16.91M |
| State Street SPDR S&P 400 U.S. Mid Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)SPY4 | 0.19% | 0.30% | €5.27B |
| Invesco Global Buyback Achievers UCITS ETFBBCK | 0.13% | 0.39% | €188.08M |
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| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.08% | 0.30% | €944.34M |
| State Street SPDR MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRS | 0.06% | 0.45% | €1.53B |
| iShares MSCI USA Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFSXRG | 0.03% | 0.43% | €2.48B |
| iShares MSCI World Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFCBUG | 0.02% | 0.35% | €434.1M |
| UBS MSCI USA Select Factor Mix UCITS ETF USD accUSUE | 0.02% | 0.25% | €175.89M |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong since 11 Nov 2026, previously Neutral
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.