International Paper stock
IPNYSEInternational Paper Company, Basic MaterialsISIN US4601461035
43Score 43 out of 100, Weak
Price and trend
62 / 100
Price history
−11% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 8.2% below it.
Since October 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 54).
The price is 31% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 90% (July 2007 to March 2009).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$34.16
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$36.97
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)54
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$29.38
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$49.19
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- International Paper Company belongs to the Paper and Forest Products industry (United States) and, with a market value of $17.97B, is the largest of 23 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $24.9B (up 33.7% year on year) and a loss of $3.52B.
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $24.57B (down 1.3%) and adjusted earnings per share of $1.07.
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- MEQIRI Score 43 out of 100 (Weak): rank 373 of 467 in Basic Materials, median 58.
- Our model puts fair value at $47.80, with the price 27% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Analysts expect strong earnings growthUp 53.2% a year through 2028 (estimates from 8 analysts).
- High dividend yieldDividend yield 5.34%, Paper and Forest Products median 3.15%.
- Reliable dividendNo dividend cut for 17 years.
Weaknesses
- Margin fallingOperating margin −11.3%, average of the prior years 7.6% (to 2024).Profitability 17
- DilutionShare count up 35% since 2020.Capital allocation 17
- Dividend not coveredDividend paid despite a loss over the last 12 months; payouts were 1,305% of free cash flow.Capital allocation 17
Its standout strength is valuation, while profitability and capital allocation hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
The fundamentals are in the middle range.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among stocks ranked 101 to 1,000.
From 2016 to 2025, 23 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 15 in 100.
What drives the risk
- cyclical sector (energy or materials), as a group, crashed more often in the backtest
Valuation
Valuation signal
Modestly undervaluedClosing price of 11 Nov 2026, used by the daily score.
In our model the price counts as cheap below $34.14 and expensive above $79.67 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $39.57, at 7.8% it would be $60.16.
Valuation metrics
From the cash-flow model alone; without earnings there is no industry value.
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 3% on the twelve months before. Revenue has changed sharply in recent years: $24.9B in 2025 after $18.62B in 2024.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 30%, operating −11%, net −14%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterDebt is moderate, but interest coverage is weak. Keep an eye on the interest burden and refinancing.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 4 Feb 2027in 84 days
- Last reported
- 28 Oct 2026EPS reported $0.37 (expected $0.29)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Analysts have cut their 2026 earnings estimate by 15.8% since 15 Oct 2026. Falling estimates often precede bad news.
- Earnings per share
- $1.07−15.8%
- Revenue
- $24.57B−0.1%
- Earnings per share
- $2.69−12.7%
- Revenue
- $26.37B+0.7%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook lowered
Share price after the results: +7.9%International Paper lowered its full-year 2026 outlook for Packaging Solutions North America to an adjusted EBITDA of $2.27 to $2.31 billion, about $110 million below the prior midpoint, citing higher inflation, weaker volume, and Pine Hill event costs.
“Our full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook is moving to $2.27 billion to $2.31 billion.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 28 Oct 2026 (fiscal Q3 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases in the last 6 months. 2 insiders sold, $1.16M in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at International Paper
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
467 rated companies in Basic Materials
- This company
- 43
- Sector median
- 58
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Paper and Forest Products
The next smaller companies by market value
- UPM-KymmeneUPM.HE $12.91B55
- SuzanoSUZ $11.92B59
- Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ)SCA-A.ST $8.42B51
- Shandong Sunpaper002078.SZ $5.61B55
- Louisiana-PacificLPX $5.32B50
- West Fraser TimberWFG $5.04B38
- HolmenHOLM-B.ST $4.53B54
- UFP IndustriesUFPI $4.37B59
ETFs that hold International Paper
Held by 107 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Materials Select Sector UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPDM | 1.63% | 0.15% | €52.49M |
| iShares S&P 500 Materials Sector UCITS ETF2B7B | 1.59% | 0.15% | €180.37M |
| Rize Sustainable Future of Food UCITS ETFRIZF | 1.23% | 0.45% | €59.51M |
Show 5 more
| iShares Dow Jones U.S. Select Dividend UCITS ETF (DE)EXX5 | 1.08% | 0.31% | €415.03M |
| Xtrackers MSCI World Materials UCITS ETF 1CXDWM | 0.61% | 0.25% | €715.95M |
| iShares MSCI USA Mid-Cap Equal Weight UCITS ETFQDVC | 0.39% | 0.20% | €268.74M |
| Deka MSCI USA MC UCITS ETFEL41 | 0.22% | 0.30% | €51.58M |
| Xtrackers S&P 500 Equal Weight UCITS ETF 1CXDEW | 0.20% | 0.15% | €14.88B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 9 May 2025)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.