First Watch Restaurant Group stock
FWRGNASDAQFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., Consumer CyclicalISIN US33748L1017
42Score 42 out of 100, Weak
Price and trend
70 / 100
Price history
−24% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 5 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 5.3% above it.
Since December 2025 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 68).
The price is 30% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 5 years: 60% (April 2024 to March 2026).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$11.49
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$12.29
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)68
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$10.11
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$18.56
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. belongs to the Restaurants industry (United States) and, with a market value of $798.74M, is number 31 of 42 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $1.22B (up 20.3% year on year) and earnings of $19.43M (up 2.7%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $1.39B (up 13.4%) and adjusted earnings per share of $0.11 (down 65%).
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- MEQIRI Score 42 out of 100 (Weak): rank 533 of 602 in Consumer Cyclical, median 61.
- The P/E is 41.3 (Restaurants median 26, own median of recent years 54).
- Our model puts fair value at $5.84, with the price 132% above it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Growing faster than its industryRevenue up 29% a year since 2020, Restaurants median 12.7%.Growth 70
Weaknesses
- Above fair valuePrice 132% above the fair value of $5.84.Valuation 33
- Negative free cash flowFree cash flow −$20.38M over the last 12 months.Fundamentals 25
- Interest barely coveredOperating profit covers interest only 1.7 times.Stability 26
Its standout strengths are growth and technical analysis, while fundamentals and capital allocation hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Fundamental quality fluctuates.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 36 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- weak fundamentals
- high price swings
- price far below its 52-week high
Valuation
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedClosing price of 11 Nov 2026, used by the daily score.
In our model the price counts as cheap below $4.17 and expensive above $9.73 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $3.53 (cash-flow model) and $8.15 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 10.5%. At 11.5% the fair value would be $5.62, at 9.5% it would be $6.13.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (26).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 27 Sep 2026, revenue rose 15.6% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown strongly since 2018, at around 20% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 13%, operating 3%, net 2%.
Debt & balance sheet
Fiscal 2025Debt is elevated. Keep an eye on the interest burden and refinancing.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 23 Feb 2027in 103 days
- Last reported
- 3 Nov 2026EPS reported $0.08 (expected $0.04)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Analysts have cut their 2026 earnings estimate by 5.6% since 15 Oct 2026. Falling estimates often precede bad news.
- Earnings per share
- $0.11−5.6%
- Revenue
- $1.39B−0.1%
- Earnings per share
- $0.26+2.7%
- Revenue
- $1.55B−0.3%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook confirmed
Share price after the results: +2.9%Cost assumptions updated (commodity inflation now flat to 1.5%, capital spending $145 to $150 million), with third quarter same-restaurant sales at or below the low end of the annual range.
“Due mostly to the timing of certain development spend falling into next year, we are lowering our expectation for capital expenditures to a range of $145 million to $150 million, down from our prior guidance of $150 million to $160 million.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 4 Aug 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases or sales in the last 6 months.
- Jones John DanielSale
17 Mar 2026, Chief Operations Officer
- Shares
- 1,697
- Price
- $12.52
- Value
- $21,246
- Hartman Eric RichardSale
17 Mar 2026, Chief Development Officer
- Shares
- 1,819
- Price
- $12.52
- Value
- $22,774
- Tomasso Christopher AnthonySale
17 Mar 2026, President and CEO
- Shares
- 25,062
- Price
- $12.52
- Value
- $313,776
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- Sorensen Laura AnneSale
17 Mar 2026, Chief People Officer
- Shares
- 1,697
- Price
- $12.52
- Value
- $21,246
- Hope H Melville IiiSale
17 Mar 2026, CFO and Treasurer
- Shares
- 3,878
- Price
- $12.52
- Value
- $48,553
- Wolszczak Jay AnthonySale
17 Mar 2026, Chief Legal Officer, GC & Secy
- Shares
- 3,161
- Price
- $12.52
- Value
- $39,576
- Eisenacher MatthewSale
17 Mar 2026, Chief Brand Officer
- Shares
- 2,760
- Price
- $12.52
- Value
- $34,555
- Hartman Eric RichardSale
10 Mar 2026, Chief Development Officer
- Shares
- 4,820
- Price
- $12.59
- Value
- $60,684
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at First Watch Restaurant Group
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
602 rated companies in Consumer Cyclical
- This company
- 42
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Restaurants
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Arcos Dorados HoldingsARCO $1.46B53
- BJ's RestaurantsBJRI $1.22B59
- Biglari HoldingsBH $1.14B43
- Bloomin' BrandsBLMN $877.25M57
- Cannae HoldingsCNNE $731.72M40
- Papa John's InternationalPZZA $632.18M44
- SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGHDL $582.48M48
- Elior GroupELIOR.PA $543.85M42
ETFs that hold First Watch Restaurant Group
Held by 9 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| L&G Russell 2000 US Small Cap Quality UCITS ETFETLZ | 0.03% | 0.30% | €185.82M |
| Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF 1CXRS2 | 0.03% | 0.30% | €2.17B |
| State Street SPDR Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRR | 0.03% | 0.30% | €4.22B |
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| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.02% | 0.30% | €944.34M |
| iShares MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETFIUSN | 0.01% | 0.35% | €8.19B |
| UBS MSCI USA Select Factor Mix UCITS ETF USD accUSUE | 0.00% | 0.25% | €175.89M |
| iShares MSCI USA Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFSXRG | 0.00% | 0.43% | €2.48B |
| State Street SPDR MSCI All Country World Investable Market UCITS ETF (Acc)SPYI | 0.00% | 0.17% | €8.6B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 28 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 30 Sep 2022)
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.