Ecopetrol stock
ECNYSEEcopetrol S.A., EnergyISIN US2791581091
74Score 74 out of 100, Strong
Price and trend
49 / 100
Price history
+51% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 18 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 0.5% above it.
Since October 2025 the 50-day line has been above the 200-day line; the trend has turned up.
Sharply down: the price has fallen very quickly lately (RSI 21).
The price is 16% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 18 years: 92% (May 2012 to January 2016).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$16.98
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$15.24
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)21
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$9.21
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$18.26
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Ecopetrol S.A. belongs to the Oil & Gas Integrated industry (Colombia) and, with a market value of $31.5B, is number 16 of 25 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- American depositary receipt (ADR): 1 ADR = 20 shares, reporting currency COP.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of COP 111.48T (down 16.4% year on year) and earnings of COP 8.4T (down 39.3%).
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- MEQIRI Score 74 out of 100 (Strong): rank 30 of 266 in Energy, median 60.
- The P/E is 8.3 (Oil & Gas Integrated median 11.6, own median of recent years 9.1).
- Our model puts fair value at $18.74, with the price 18% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Earnings per share growingUp 37.8% a year since 2020.Growth 96
- Consistently profitableProfit in all 10 fiscal years from 2016 to 2025.Fundamentals 87
- Earnings turn into cashFree cash flow 112% of earnings over the last 12 months.Fundamentals 87
Weaknesses
- Analysts expect falling earningsDown 8.8% a year through 2028 (estimates from 5 analysts).
Its standout strengths are growth and fundamentals, while technical analysis holds the score back.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Fundamentals are strong, with stable profits and strong cash generation.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among stocks ranked 101 to 1,000.
From 2016 to 2025, 23 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 15 in 100.
What drives the risk
- high growth grade (crashed more often in the backtest)
- cyclical sector (energy or materials), as a group, crashed more often in the backtest
What lowers it
- solid fundamentals
Valuation
Valuation signal
Modestly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $14.41 and expensive above $26.77 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $16.15 (cash-flow model) and $21.32 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 18.3%. At 19.3% the fair value would be $17.81, at 17.3% it would be $19.98.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (11.6).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Jun 2026, revenue fell 5% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown solidly since 2006, at about 10% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 31%, operating 22%, net 8%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterModerate debt, and interest is adequately covered.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 3 Mar 2027in 110 days
- Last reported
- 12 Nov 2026below expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- 7,817.29−0.5%
- Revenue
- COP 122.67T−3.2%
- Earnings per share
- 6,358.5−2.4%
- Revenue
- COP 115.94T−3.4%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook confirmed
Share price after the results: −1.3%No guidance change stated; a gradual production recovery and strong cash generation are expected in the second half, with volumes in the traditional business kept at current levels.
“While we continue to monitor external factors, including weather conditions associated with the El Nino phenomenon and other elements of the operating environment, the actions underway support our outlook for a gradual production recovery and strong cash generation through the second half of the year.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 4 Aug 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases or sales in the last 6 months.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Ecopetrol
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
266 rated companies in Energy
- This company
- 74
- Sector median
- 60
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Oil & Gas Integrated
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Imperial OilIMO $60.13B75
- Cenovus EnergyCVE $52.21B70
- Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN Spólka AkcyjnaPKN.WA $38.66B69
- RepsolREP.MC $35.62B79
- Oil and Natural GasONGC.NS $30.02B73
- OMVOMV.VI $26.33B73
- Galp Energia, SGPSGALP.LS $15.33B71
- YPF Sociedad AnónimaYPF $14.58B57
ETFs that hold Ecopetrol
Held by 8 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avantis Emerging Markets Equity UCITS ETF USD AccAVEM | 0.04% | 0.35% | €284.54M |
| Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets UCITS ETF (USD) AccumulatingVFEA | 0.04% | 0.17% | €5.24B |
| Vanguard FTSE All-World High Dividend Yield UCITS ETF (USD) AccumulatingVGWE | 0.01% | 0.29% | €13.67B |
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| Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF (USD) AccumulatingVWCE | 0.00% | 0.14% | €79.59B |
| Vanguard FTSE Global All-Cap UCITS ETF Accum USDVGLA | 0.00% | 0.07% | €3.9B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 1 May 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.