Ecopetrol stock: fair value
ECThe fair value of Ecopetrol under our model is $18.60, the price is 18% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $14.31 and expensive above $26.57 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $16.31 (cash-flow model) and $20.88 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 18.3%. At 19.3% the fair value would be $17.66, at 17.3% it would be $19.87.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (11.3).
Ten-year cash-flow model: 3 years from analyst estimates, then extrapolated until growth reaches 11.6% (five-year average government bond yield). Discounted at 18.3% (government bond yield 11.6% plus beta 0.95 times a risk premium of 7%).
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $16.31 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 18.3%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 18.3%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | COP 14.62T | Estimate, 5 analysts | 0.8453 | COP 12.36T |
| 2027 | COP 11.7T | Estimate, 5 analysts | 0.7145 | COP 8.36T |
| 2028 | COP 10.87T | Estimate, 2 analysts | 0.6040 | COP 6.56T |
| 2029 | COP 10.95T | extrapolated at 0.8% | 0.5106 | COP 5.59T |
| 2030 | COP 11.4T | extrapolated at 4.0% | 0.4316 | COP 4.92T |
| 2031 | COP 12.12T | extrapolated at 6.3% | 0.3648 | COP 4.42T |
| 2032 | COP 13.07T | extrapolated at 7.9% | 0.3084 | COP 4.03T |
| 2033 | COP 14.25T | extrapolated at 9.0% | 0.2607 | COP 3.71T |
| 2034 | COP 15.65T | extrapolated at 9.8% | 0.2203 | COP 3.45T |
| 2035 | COP 17.26T | extrapolated at 10.3% | 0.1863 | COP 3.22T |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | COP 56.62T |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 11.6%) / (18.3% − 11.6%) | COP 287.98T |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.1863) | COP 53.64T |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | COP 110.26T |
| Shares (diluted) | 2.06B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | COP 53,635.14 |
| Per share as traded (converted ÷ 3,288) | $16.31 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $1.85 |
| × 11.3 (industry P/E) | $20.88 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $18.60 |
In the years with estimates, the model derives free cash flow from estimated earnings and revenue, because there are no estimates for the cash flow itself. The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 1 May 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.