Japan Tobacco stock
2914.TJPXJapan Tobacco Inc., Consumer DefensiveISIN JP3726800000
73Score 73 out of 100, Strong
Price and trend
50 / 100
Price history
+6.0% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 5.4% below it.
Since May 2025 the 50-day line has been above the 200-day line; the trend has turned up.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 33).
The price is 23% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 69% (December 2007 to March 2009).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$43.55
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$39.69
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)33
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$30.73
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$48.65
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Japan Tobacco Inc. belongs to the Tobacco industry (Japan) and, with a market value of $66.66B, is number 4 of 15 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $21.71B (up 10.1% year on year) and earnings of $3.19B (up 184.6%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $24.27B (up 11.8%) and adjusted earnings per share of $2.32 (up 27.2%).
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- MEQIRI Score 73 out of 100 (Strong): rank 36 of 296 in Consumer Defensive, median 62.
- The P/E is 17.6 (Consumer Defensive sector median 24.3, own median of recent years 12.9).
- Our model puts fair value at $64.17, with the price 41% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Reliable dividendNo dividend cut for over 26 years.Capital allocation 71
- Below fair valuePrice 41% below the fair value of $64.17.Valuation 84
- Consistently profitableProfit in all 10 fiscal years from 2016 to 2025.Fundamentals 91
Weaknesses
None of our weakness checks flags anything. Crash risk is measured separately.
Its standout strengths are fundamentals and valuation.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 71 to 73.
Fundamentals are strong, with stable profits and strong cash generation.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk not measured
How well MEQIRI warnsFor stocks from Japan, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, Canada, India and Brazil we only show crash risk once a separate backtest shows that it warns as well there as in the US and Europe.
Valuation
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $49.36 and expensive above $91.67 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $76.47 (cash-flow model) and $51.87 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 6.1%. At 7.1% the fair value would be $57.28, at 5.1% it would be $74.56.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the sector P/E (24.3).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 12.8% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown solidly since 2011, at about 4% per year. From 2011 revenue is reported differently (for example gross instead of net), so earlier years are not comparable and not shown.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 56%, operating 22%, net 15%. From 2011 revenue is reported differently (for example gross instead of net), so earlier years are not comparable and not shown.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterModerate debt, and interest is adequately covered.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 10 Feb 2027in 89 days
- Last reported
- 29 Oct 2026EPS reported $0.66 (expected $0.70)below expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 23 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $2.32+1.5%
- Revenue
- $24.27B−0.2%
- Earnings per share
- $2.54−0.3%
- Revenue
- $25.27B−0.4%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 23 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook raised
Share price after the results: −2.1%Japan Tobacco raised its fiscal 2026 forecast: core revenue now seen up 7.3% versus a lower prior outlook, adjusted operating profit up 16.1% and net profit up 32.6% year on year, while the dividend forecast of JPY 272 per share was maintained.
“We remain confident in achieving our latest earnings forecast and have, therefore, maintained our annual dividend forecast at JPY 272 per share, which we raised previously.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 29 Oct 2026 (fiscal Q3 2026), read by AI.
What happened at Japan Tobacco
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
296 rated companies in Consumer Defensive
- This company
- 73
- Sector median
- 62
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Tobacco
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Philip Morris InternationalPM $306.53B75
- British American Tobacco p.l.c.BTI $131.82B62
- Altria GroupMO $129.62B77
- ITCITC.NS $37.84B74
- Imperial BrandsITB.DE $29.12B68
- KT&G033780.KS $13.34B64
- Smoore International Holdings6969.HK $6.33B45
- RLX TechnologyRLX $1.91B53
ETFs that hold Japan Tobacco
Held by 67 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| State Street SPDR MSCI Japan UCITS ETFZPDJ | 1.07% | 0.12% | €1.1B |
| L&G Japan Equity UCITS ETFETLR | 0.97% | 0.10% | €948.97M |
| Amundi Prime Japan UCITS ETF DR (C)PRAJ | 0.90% | 0.05% | €4.34B |
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| iShares Core MSCI Japan IMI UCITS ETFEUNN | 0.85% | 0.12% | €7.17B |
| iShares STOXX Global Select Dividend 100 UCITS ETF (DE)ISPA | 0.78% | 0.46% | €5.31B |
| Amundi Japan TOPIX II UCITS ETF EUR Hedged DistJPNH | 0.78% | 0.45% | €633.4M |
| Vanguard FTSE Japan UCITS ETF EUR Hedged AccumulatingVJPE | 0.76% | 0.13% | €4.58B |
| Xtrackers MSCI World Consumer Staples UCITS ETF 1CXDWS | 0.75% | 0.25% | €977.67M |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = ¥159.70)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 3 Jul 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.