Ulta Beauty stock
ULTANASDAQUlta Beauty, Inc., Consumer CyclicalISIN US90384S3031
83Score 83 out of 100, Strong
Price and trend
88 / 100
Price history
+26% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 19 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 19% above it.
Since October 2026 the 50-day line has been above the 200-day line; the trend has turned up.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 59).
The price is 6.8% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 19 years: 88% (October 2007 to March 2009).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$583.55
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$552.14
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)59
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$450.75
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$706.82
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Ulta Beauty, Inc. belongs to the Specialty Retail industry (United States) and, with a market value of $28.18B, is number 14 of 86 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $12.39B (up 9.7% year on year) and earnings of $1.15B (down 4%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $13.28B (up 7.2%) and adjusted earnings per share of $29.02 (up 13.2%).
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- MEQIRI Score 83 out of 100 (Strong): rank 11 of 602 in Consumer Cyclical, median 61.
- The P/E is 23.7 (Specialty Retail median 23, own median of recent years 23.3).
- Our model puts fair value at $735.29, with the price 10% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Earnings per share growingUp 52.5% a year since 2020.Growth 85
- Share buybacksShare count down 20% since 2020.Capital allocation 90
- High return on capitalReturn on invested capital 28.6% in fiscal 2025, Specialty Retail median 8.1%.Profitability 79
Weaknesses
None of our weakness checks flags anything. Crash risk is measured separately.
Its standout strengths are fundamentals and momentum.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Fundamentals are strong, with stable profits and strong cash generation.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk medium
How well MEQIRI warnsIn the middle among stocks ranked 101 to 1,000.
From 2016 to 2025, 13 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 15 in 100.
What drives the risk
- high growth grade (crashed more often in the backtest)
What lowers it
- solid fundamentals
- stable momentum
Valuation
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $565.61 and expensive above $1,050.41 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $831.54 (cash-flow model) and $639.04 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $661.23, at 7.8% it would be $846.78.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (23).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 1 Aug 2026, revenue rose 11.2% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown strongly since 2006, at around 16% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 39%, operating 12%, net 9%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterThe balance sheet is solid, with moderate debt and comfortable interest coverage.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 3 Dec 2026in 21 days
- Last reported
- 27 Aug 2026EPS reported $6.55 (expected $6.22)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $29.02+0.1%
- Revenue
- $13.28B0.0%
- Earnings per share
- $32.19+0.1%
- Revenue
- $13.96B0.0%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook raised
Share price after the results: −4.7%The 2026 outlook was raised to net sales growth of 6.7% to 7.2% and EPS of $28.70 to $29.00, growth of 11.9% to 13.1% versus 10.6% to 12.3% before.
“We also now expect diluted EPS to be between $28.70 and $29 per share, representing growth between 11.9% and 13.1%, respectively, compared to previously announced growth expectations of 10.6% to 12.3%.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 27 Aug 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases in the last 6 months. 3 insiders sold, $1.6M in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Ulta Beauty
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
602 rated companies in Consumer Cyclical
- This company
- 83
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Specialty Retail
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- SeaSE $44.84B60
- JD.comJD $37.61B51
- Williams-SonomaWSM $30.87B81
- CoupangCPNG $28.66B37
- Casey's General StoresCASY $26.39B68
- POYA International5904.TWO $24.89B79
- Best BuyBBY $22.05B72
- Tractor SupplyTSCO $19.05B63
ETFs that hold Ulta Beauty
Held by 124 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Invesco NASDAQ Next Generation 100 UCITS ETF AccEQQJ | 1.45% | 0.25% | €44.3M |
| iShares Edge MSCI USA Quality Factor UCITS ETFQDVB | 0.62% | 0.20% | €1.89B |
| Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta Paris-Aligned Sustainable US Large Cap Equity UCITS ETFGACA | 0.60% | 0.14% | €135.41M |
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| iShares S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Sector UCITS ETFQDVK | 0.58% | 0.15% | €719.53M |
| Xtrackers MSCI USA Consumer Discretionary UCITS ETF 1DXUCD | 0.58% | 0.12% | €150.96M |
| State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Consumer Discretionary Select Sector UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPDD | 0.56% | 0.15% | €123.56M |
| iShares STOXX USA Equity Multifactor UCITS ETFIBCY | 0.46% | 0.20% | €47.95M |
| iShares MSCI USA Mid-Cap Equal Weight UCITS ETFQDVC | 0.45% | 0.20% | €268.74M |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Jan 2026
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 31 May 2021)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.