Tractor Supply stock
TSCONASDAQTractor Supply Company, Consumer CyclicalISIN US8923561067
63Score 63 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
64 / 100
Price history
−34% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 1.8% below it.
Since December 2025 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 59).
The price is 35% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 53% (August 2025 to June 2026).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$33.52
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$37.42
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)59
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$29.14
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$56.18
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Tractor Supply Company belongs to the Specialty Retail industry (United States) and, with a market value of $19.05B, is number 18 of 86 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $15.52B (up 4.3% year on year) and earnings of $1.1B (down 0.5%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $16.06B (up 3.5%) and adjusted earnings per share of $1.95 (down 5.6%).
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- MEQIRI Score 63 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 285 of 602 in Consumer Cyclical, median 61.
- The P/E is 19.6 (Specialty Retail median 23, own median of recent years 22.8).
- Our model puts fair value at $44.30, with the price 17% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Reliable dividendNo dividend cut for 16 years.Capital allocation 84
- Consistently profitableProfit in all 10 fiscal years from 2016 to 2025.Fundamentals 71
- Share buybacksShare count down 9% since 2020.Capital allocation 84
Weaknesses
- High debtDebt 2.53 times equity (latest quarter), Specialty Retail median 1.02.Stability 61
- Share price fell sharplyDown 34% over the last 12 months.Momentum 55
Its standout strengths are capital allocation and fundamentals, while growth holds the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Fundamentals are strong, with stable profits.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk medium
How well MEQIRI warnsIn the middle among stocks ranked 101 to 1,000.
From 2016 to 2025, 13 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 15 in 100.
What drives the risk
- price far below its 52-week high
Valuation
Valuation signal
Modestly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $34.08 and expensive above $63.28 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $45.53 (cash-flow model) and $43.07 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9%. At 10% the fair value would be $40.25, at 8% it would be $50.30.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (23).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 26 Sep 2026, revenue rose 3.5% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown solidly since 2006, at about 10% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 33%, operating 9%, net 7%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterMeaningfully leveraged, but the interest bill is comfortably covered.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 4 Feb 2027in 84 days
- Last reported
- 22 Oct 2026EPS reported $0.43 (expected $0.41)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $1.95+1.0%
- Revenue
- $16.06B+0.6%
- Earnings per share
- $2.06+0.8%
- Revenue
- $16.69B+0.4%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook lowered
Share price after the results: +5.7%2026 outlook updated after a weak second quarter: net sales up 2.5% to 3.5%, comparable sales down 1% to flat, EPS of $1.90 to $2.00, long term framework withdrawn and fewer new stores in 2027.
“We now expect net sales growth of approximately 2.5% to 3.5%, comparable store sales in the range of negative 1% to flat, adjusted operating margin between 8.5% and 8.8%, and adjusted diluted EPS between $1.90 and $2.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 23 Jul 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
3 insiders bought on the open market between 3 Aug 2026 and 4 Aug 2026, $652,394 in total.
Partial trades from one filing are shown in one row, with the average price.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Tractor Supply
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
602 rated companies in Consumer Cyclical
- This company
- 63
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Specialty Retail
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Ulta BeautyULTA $28.18B83
- Casey's General StoresCASY $26.39B68
- POYA International5904.TWO $24.89B79
- Best BuyBBY $22.05B72
- Allegro.euALE.WA $15.66B74
- WayfairW $15.66B46
- China Tourism Group Duty Free601888.SS $15.25B52
- SHEIN Global Holdings0625.HK $14.69B75
ETFs that hold Tractor Supply
Held by 124 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Invesco NASDAQ Next Generation 100 UCITS ETF AccEQQJ | 0.99% | 0.25% | €44.3M |
| iShares MSCI World Consumer Discretionary Sector Advanced UCITS ETF36BB | 0.80% | 0.18% | €33.17M |
| Xtrackers MSCI USA Consumer Discretionary UCITS ETF 1DXUCD | 0.40% | 0.12% | €150.96M |
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| iShares S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Sector UCITS ETFQDVK | 0.39% | 0.15% | €719.53M |
| iShares MSCI USA Mid-Cap Equal Weight UCITS ETFQDVC | 0.38% | 0.20% | €268.74M |
| State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Consumer Discretionary Select Sector UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPDD | 0.38% | 0.15% | €123.56M |
| First Trust US Large Cap Core AlphaDEX UCITS ETFFTGU | 0.31% | 0.75% | €140.24M |
| iShares MSCI USA Quality Dividend Advanced UCITS ETFQDVD | 0.30% | 0.35% | €777.04M |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 27 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 20 Feb 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.