Tesla stock
TSLANASDAQTesla, Inc., Consumer CyclicalISIN US88160R1014
51Score 51 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
62 / 100
Price history
−11% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 16 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 2.0% above it.
Since April 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 55).
The price is 20% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 16 years: 74% (November 2021 to January 2023).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$373.65
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$383.03
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)55
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$298.32
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$489.88
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Tesla, Inc. belongs to the Auto (Manufacturers) industry (United States) and, with a market value of $1.54T, is the largest of 55 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $94.83B (down 2.9% year on year) and earnings of $3.79B (down 46.8%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $107.55B (up 13.4%) and adjusted earnings per share of $1.68 (up 0.8%).
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- MEQIRI Score 51 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 449 of 602 in Consumer Cyclical, median 61.
- The P/E is 429.8 (Auto (Manufacturers) median 19.1, own median of recent years 116.8).
- Our model puts fair value at $135.09, with the price 189% above it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Earnings per share growingUp 36.4% a year since 2020.Growth 87
- Growing faster than its industryRevenue up 24.6% a year since 2020, Auto (Manufacturers) median 8.3%.Growth 87
- Analysts expect strong earnings growthUp 26.8% a year through 2028 (estimates from 25 analysts).Growth 87
Weaknesses
- Richly valuedP/E 429.8, Auto (Manufacturers) median 19.1, own median 116.8.Valuation 11
- Above fair valuePrice 189% above the fair value of $135.09.Valuation 11
- Margin fallingOperating margin 4.6%, average of the prior years 9.2% (to 2024).Profitability 30
Its standout strengths are growth and stability, while capital allocation and valuation hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 50 to 51.
The fundamentals are in the middle range.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among the 100 largest stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 17 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 9 in 100.
What drives the risk
- high growth grade (crashed more often in the backtest)
What lowers it
- very large company
Valuation
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $96.49 and expensive above $225.15 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $252.81 (cash-flow model) and $17.37 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $109.86, at 7.8% it would be $173.34.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (19.1).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 8.3% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown strongly since 2013, at around 38% per year. From 2013 revenue is reported differently (for example gross instead of net), so earlier years are not comparable and not shown.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 18%, operating 5%, net 4%. From 2013 revenue is reported differently (for example gross instead of net), so earlier years are not comparable and not shown.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterThe balance sheet is solid, with low debt and comfortable interest coverage.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 27 Jan 2027in 76 days
- Last reported
- 21 Oct 2026EPS reported $0.48 (expected $0.45)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Analysts have cut their 2027 earnings estimate by 12.3% since 15 Oct 2026. Falling estimates often precede bad news.
- Earnings per share
- $1.68−1.7%
- Revenue
- $107.55B+0.5%
- Earnings per share
- $2.02−12.3%
- Revenue
- $121.88B+0.6%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook mixed
Share price after the results: +0.2%Tesla lowered its 2026 CapEx guidance to approximately $20 billion but secured an additional $30 billion credit facility to support future growth, while Optimus deliveries are now expected only around the end of next year.
“Additionally, during the quarter, we secured capacity to borrow up to $30 billion to support the expected growth in CapEx.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 21 Oct 2026 (fiscal Q3 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases in the last 6 months. One insider sold, $3.34M in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Tesla
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
602 rated companies in Consumer Cyclical
- This company
- 51
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Auto (Manufacturers)
The next smaller companies by market value
- Toyota MotorTM $253.71B63
- BYD002594.SZ $112.13B56
- General MotorsGM $75.48B58
- FerrariRACE.MI $73.2B83
- Ford MotorF $48.92B43
- Dr. Ing. h.c. F. PorscheP911.DE $46.81B56
- Maruti Suzuki IndiaMARUTI.NS $44.24B62
- Mercedes-Benz GroupMBG.DE $44.12B52
ETFs that hold Tesla
Held by 138 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Consumer Discretionary Select Sector UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPDD | 16.84% | 0.15% | €123.56M |
| iShares S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Sector UCITS ETFQDVK | 16.76% | 0.15% | €719.53M |
| Xtrackers MSCI USA Consumer Discretionary UCITS ETF 1DXUCD | 15.87% | 0.12% | €150.96M |
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| Amundi MSCI Smart Mobility UCITS ETF AccELCR | 15.45% | 0.45% | €142.4M |
| Amundi S&P Global Consumer Discretionary ESG UCITS ETF Accum-DR EURWELJ | 14.66% | 0.18% | €644.77M |
| iShares MSCI World Consumer Discretionary Sector Advanced UCITS ETF36BB | 12.62% | 0.18% | €33.17M |
| Xtrackers MSCI World Consumer Discretionary UCITS ETF 1CXDWC | 12.23% | 0.25% | €388.27M |
| UBS MSCI USA Socially Responsible UCITS ETF hEUR disUET1 | 5.38% | 0.25% | €1.04B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral since 10 Nov 2026, previously Weak
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.