Toyota Motor stock
TMNYSEToyota Motor Corporation, Consumer CyclicalISIN US8923313071
63Score 63 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
69 / 100
Price history
+1.2% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 5.9% above it.
Since May 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 64).
The price is 16% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 58% (January 2007 to March 2009).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$194.57
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$197.97
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)64
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$166.50
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$248.29
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Toyota Motor Corporation belongs to the Auto (Manufacturers) industry (Japan) and, with a market value of $250.62B, is number 2 of 55 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- American depositary receipt (ADR): 1 ADR = 10 shares.
- In fiscal 2026 it reported revenue of $317.38B (up 5.5% year on year) and earnings of $24.96B (down 16.4%).
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- MEQIRI Score 63 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 276 of 596 in Consumer Cyclical, median 61.
- The P/E is 9.4 (Auto (Manufacturers) median 19.2, own median of recent years 10.1).
- Our model puts fair value at $292.66, with the price 28% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Reliable dividendNo dividend cut for 17 years.Capital allocation 64
- Consistently profitableProfit in all 10 fiscal years from 2017 to 2026.
- Share buybacksShare count down 7% since 2021.Capital allocation 64
Weaknesses
- Negative free cash flowFree cash flow −$7.4B over the last 12 months.Fundamentals 46
Its standout strengths are valuation and growth, while fundamentals and profitability hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Fundamental quality fluctuates.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among the 100 largest stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 17 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 9 in 100.
What drives the risk
- weak fundamentals
What lowers it
- very large company
Valuation
Valuation signal
Modestly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $209.04 and expensive above $487.77 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $157.32 (cash-flow model) and $428.00 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9.8%. At 10.8% the fair value would be $283.99, at 8.8% it would be $303.60.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (19.2).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 8.7% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown solidly since 2007, at about 4% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2026: gross 17%, operating 7%, net 8%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterMeaningfully leveraged, but the interest bill is comfortably covered.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 5 Feb 2027in 84 days
- Last reported
- 5 Nov 2026above expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- 3,171.23+1.0%
- Revenue
- $338.45B+0.6%
- Earnings per share
- 3,502.1+0.7%
- Revenue
- $350.59B+0.6%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook lowered
Share price after the results: −2.8%Operating income for the year ending March 2027 is forecast at JPY 3 trillion, down JPY 766.2 billion from the prior year, partly due to the Middle East impact; vehicle sales of 9.6 million are about flat.
“Middle East impact resulting in the operating income forecast of JPY 3 trillion, down JPY 766.2 billion from the previous fiscal year.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 8 May 2026 (fiscal Q4 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
One insider bought on the open market in the last 6 months, $1.56M in total. One insider sold, $1.58M in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
Shares and prices per ordinary share as filed with the SEC, not per depositary receipt (1 ADR = 10 shares).
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Toyota Motor
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
596 rated companies in Consumer Cyclical
- This company
- 63
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Auto (Manufacturers)
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- TeslaTSLA $1.57T52
- BYD002594.SZ $109.82B54
- General MotorsGM $72.76B58
- FerrariRACE.MI $71.7B83
- Ford MotorF $47.52B42
- Dr. Ing. h.c. F. PorscheP911.DE $46.23B56
- Honda MotorHMC $44.59B52
- Maruti Suzuki IndiaMARUTI.NS $43.52B61
ETFs that hold Toyota Motor
Held by 102 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xtrackers Future Mobility UCITS ETF 1CXMOV | 7.27% | 0.35% | €167.19M |
| WisdomTree Japan Equity UCITS ETF USD HedgedWTDX | 6.18% | 0.48% | €796.64M |
| L&G Hydrogen Economy UCITS ETF USDHTMW | 5.50% | 0.49% | €394.58M |
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| Xtrackers MSCI Japan Screened UCITS ETF 3C EUR HedgedXDNE | 4.56% | 0.25% | €457.17M |
| Amundi MSCI Japan ESG Broad Transition UCITS ETF EUR AccJ1GR | 4.36% | 0.15% | €1.36B |
| UBS Core MSCI Japan UCITS ETF JPY dis DistributionUIM5 | 4.29% | 0.12% | €7.18B |
| Amundi Global Hydrogen UCITS ETF AccAMEE | 3.65% | 0.45% | €205.36M |
| Amundi Prime Japan UCITS ETF DR (D)PR1J | 3.60% | 0.05% | €4.34B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2026, period end 31 Mar 2026
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = ¥159.70)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 31 Mar 2023)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026, previously Undervalued
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.