Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) stock: fair value
SCA-A.STThe fair value of Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) under our model is $3.99, the price is 203% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $2.85 and expensive above $6.65 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $1.74 (cash-flow model) and $6.24 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.2%. At 8.2% the fair value would be $3.85, at 6.2% it would be $4.19.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (20.2).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.2%. Discounted at 7.2% (floor: government bond yield 2.2% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.9 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $1.74 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 7.2%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 7.2%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $100.82M | extrapolated at −23.2% | 0.9330 | $94.07M |
| 2027 | $85.08M | extrapolated at −15.6% | 0.8705 | $74.06M |
| 2028 | $76.33M | extrapolated at −10.3% | 0.8122 | $62M |
| 2029 | $71.34M | extrapolated at −6.5% | 0.7578 | $54.06M |
| 2030 | $68.54M | extrapolated at −3.9% | 0.7070 | $48.46M |
| 2031 | $67.11M | extrapolated at −2.1% | 0.6597 | $44.27M |
| 2032 | $66.56M | extrapolated at −0.8% | 0.6155 | $40.97M |
| 2033 | $66.62M | extrapolated at 0.1% | 0.5742 | $38.26M |
| 2034 | $67.1M | extrapolated at 0.7% | 0.5358 | $35.95M |
| 2035 | $67.87M | extrapolated at 1.2% | 0.4999 | $33.93M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $526.02M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.2%) / (7.2% − 2.2%) | $1.39B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4999) | $693.33M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $1.22B |
| Shares (diluted) | 702.34M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $1.74 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.31 |
| × 20.2 (industry P/E) | $6.24 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $3.99 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = SEK 9.9729)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 22 May 2026)
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.