Suzano stock: fair value
SUZThe fair value of Suzano under our model is $12.83, the price is 23% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $9.16 and expensive above $21.38 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $1.27 (cash-flow model) and $24.39 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 19.4%. At 20.4% the fair value would be $12.79, at 18.4% it would be $12.88.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (20.2).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 7.5%. Discounted at 19.4% (government bond yield 7.5% plus beta 1.59 times a risk premium of 7.5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $1.27 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 19.4%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 19.4%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $313.92M | extrapolated at −25.2% | 0.8374 | $262.88M |
| 2027 | $265.53M | extrapolated at −15.4% | 0.7013 | $186.2M |
| 2028 | $242.85M | extrapolated at −8.5% | 0.5872 | $142.62M |
| 2029 | $233.81M | extrapolated at −3.7% | 0.4918 | $114.98M |
| 2030 | $232.98M | extrapolated at −0.4% | 0.4118 | $95.95M |
| 2031 | $237.66M | extrapolated at 2.0% | 0.3449 | $81.96M |
| 2032 | $246.35M | extrapolated at 3.7% | 0.2888 | $71.14M |
| 2033 | $258.2M | extrapolated at 4.8% | 0.2418 | $62.44M |
| 2034 | $272.72M | extrapolated at 5.6% | 0.2025 | $55.23M |
| 2035 | $289.6M | extrapolated at 6.2% | 0.1696 | $49.11M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.12B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 7.5%) / (19.4% − 7.5%) | $2.62B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.1696) | $443.53M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $1.57B |
| Shares (diluted) | 1.23B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $1.27 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $1.21 |
| × 20.2 (industry P/E) | $24.39 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $12.83 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = R$5.6169)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 18 Apr 2025)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 13 Nov 2026, previously Undervalued
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.