Portillo's stock
PTLONASDAQPortillo's Inc., Consumer CyclicalISIN US73642K1060
48Score 48 out of 100, Weak
Price and trend
68 / 100
Price history
+50% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 5 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 46% above it.
Since May 2025 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Overheated: the price has risen very quickly lately (RSI 81).
The price is at its 52-week high. Largest decline in 5 years: 94% (November 2021 to September 2026).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$4.45
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$4.85
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)81
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$3.50
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$7.09
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Portillo's Inc. belongs to the Restaurants industry (United States) and, with a market value of $514.16M, is number 37 of 42 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $732.07M (up 3% year on year) and earnings of $19.35M (down 34.5%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $771.23M (up 5.3%) and adjusted earnings per share of $0.16 (down 41.3%).
Show more
- MEQIRI Score 48 out of 100 (Weak): rank 486 of 602 in Consumer Cyclical, median 61.
- The P/E is 30.3 (Restaurants median 26, own median of recent years 32.9).
- Our model puts fair value at $6.85, with the price 3% above it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Analysts expect strong earnings growthUp 17% a year through 2027 (estimates from 5 analysts).
Weaknesses
- DilutionShare count up 105% since 2020.Capital allocation 24
- Negative free cash flowFree cash flow −$18.52M over the last 12 months.Fundamentals 52
- Interest barely coveredOperating profit covers interest only 2.1 times.Stability 28
Its standout strength is momentum, while stability and capital allocation hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
The fundamentals are in the middle range.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk medium
How well MEQIRI warnsIn the middle among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 20 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- high price swings
- weak fundamentals
What lowers it
- price near its 52-week high
- stable momentum
Valuation
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $4.57 and expensive above $13.70 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $7.63 (cash-flow model) and $6.08 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9%. At 10% the fair value would be $6.17, at 8% it would be $7.86.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (26).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 27 Sep 2026, revenue rose 4.2% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown solidly since 2019, at about 7% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 39%, operating 7%, net 3%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterDebt is elevated. Keep an eye on the interest burden and refinancing.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 23 Feb 2027in 103 days
- Last reported
- 5 Nov 2026EPS reported $0.06 (expected $0.03)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Analysts have cut their 2026 earnings estimate by 12.0% since 15 Oct 2026. Falling estimates often precede bad news.
- Earnings per share
- $0.16−12.0%
- Revenue
- $771.23M−0.1%
- Earnings per share
- $0.23−0.8%
- Revenue
- $797.79M−0.5%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook lowered
Share price after the results: −3.3%2026 adjusted EBITDA now only $92 to $96 million, restaurant level margin guidance lowered by about 75 basis points, with headwinds from promotions and cannibalization in August and September.
“With that backdrop, we now expect adjusted EBITDA of $92 million to $96 million for the year.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 5 Aug 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
One insider bought on the open market in the last 6 months, $299,979 in total.
- Lee Eugene I JrPurchase
12 Aug 2026, Board
- Shares
- 65,355
- Price
- $4.59
- Value
- $299,979
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Portillo's
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
602 rated companies in Consumer Cyclical
- This company
- 48
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Restaurants
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Papa John's InternationalPZZA $632.18M44
- SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGHDL $582.48M48
- Elior GroupELIOR.PA $543.85M42
- AmRest HoldingsEAT.MC $532.29M45
- Ibersol, S.G.P.S.IBS.LS $470.34M57
- El Pollo Loco HoldingsLOCO $459.02M60
- Dine Brands GlobalDIN $457.13M63
- Nordrest HoldingNREST.ST $350.45M79
ETFs that hold Portillo's
Held by 2 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| State Street SPDR Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRR | 0.02% | 0.30% | €4.22B |
| Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF 1CXRS2 | 0.02% | 0.30% | €2.17B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 28 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 11 Jul 2025)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.