El Pollo Loco Holdings stock
LOCONASDAQEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc., Consumer CyclicalISIN US2686031079
60Score 60 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
76 / 100
Price history
+42% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 12 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 6.4% above it.
Since December 2025 the 50-day line has been above the 200-day line; the trend has turned up.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 51).
The price is 12% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 12 years: 84% (August 2014 to March 2020).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$15.02
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$14.28
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)51
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$10.07
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$17.20
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. belongs to the Restaurants industry (United States) and, with a market value of $459.02M, is number 39 of 42 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $490.05M (up 3.6% year on year) and earnings of $26.49M (up 3.1%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $503.04M (up 2.7%) and adjusted earnings per share of $0.99 (down 0.5%).
Show more
- MEQIRI Score 60 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 323 of 602 in Consumer Cyclical, median 61.
- The P/E is 13.4 (Restaurants median 26, own median of recent years 17.5).
- Our model puts fair value at $26.30, with the price 42% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Modestly valuedP/E 13.4, Restaurants median 26, own median 17.5.Valuation 80
- Below fair valuePrice 42% below the fair value of $26.30.Valuation 80
- Share buybacksShare count down 17% since 2020.Capital allocation 57
Weaknesses
- Negative free cash flowFree cash flow −$8M over the last 12 months.Fundamentals 61
Its standout strengths are valuation and technical analysis, while profitability and growth hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 63 to 60.
The fundamentals are in the middle range.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk medium
How well MEQIRI warnsIn the middle among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 20 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
Valuation
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $20.23 and expensive above $37.57 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $23.01 (cash-flow model) and $29.59 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $24.34, at 7.8% it would be $29.25.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (26).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 5.1% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown solidly since 2012, at about 4% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 29%, operating 9%, net 5%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterThe balance sheet is solid, with moderate debt and comfortable interest coverage.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 11 Mar 2027in 119 days
- Last reported
- 5 Nov 2026EPS reported $0.24 (expected $0.24)in line with expectations
Analyst estimates
Analysts have cut their 2026 earnings estimate by 4.0% since 15 Oct 2026. Falling estimates often precede bad news.
- Earnings per share
- $0.99−4.0%
- Revenue
- $503.04M−0.2%
- Earnings per share
- $1.08−2.5%
- Revenue
- $525.14M0.0%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook raised
Share price after the results: −10.8%2026 guidance raised: system-wide comparable sales growth of 3.5% to 4.5% and adjusted EBITDA of $68 million to $70 million, with capital spending reduced to $33 million to $37 million.
“We are increasing our adjusted EBITDA guidance to be between $68 million and $70 million We are reducing our expected capital spending to be between $33 and $37 million In addition, we now expect depreciation and amortization expenses to be between $18 million and $18.5 million for the year.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 6 Aug 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases in the last 6 months. One insider sold, $10.34M in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
- Biglari, SardarSale
5 Nov 2026, Major holder
- Shares
- 5,984
- Price
- $16.50
- Value
- $98,736
- Biglari, SardarSale
4 Nov 2026, Major holder
- Shares
- 13,169
- Price
- $16.50
- Value
- $217,289
- Biglari, SardarSale
16 Oct 2026, Major holder
- Shares
- 25,556
- Price
- $16.50
- Value
- $421,674
Show 15 more
- Biglari, SardarSale
7 Aug 2026, Major holder
- Shares
- 1,100
- Price
- $17.06
- Value
- $18,766
- Biglari, SardarSale
5 Aug 2026, Major holder
- Shares
- 80,000
- Price
- $16.90
- Value
- $1.35M
- Biglari, SardarSale
3 Aug 2026, Major holder
- Shares
- 20,000
- Price
- $16.73
- Value
- $334,600
- Biglari, SardarSale
30 Jul 2026, Major holder
- Shares
- 546
- Price
- $16.70
- Value
- $9,118
- Biglari, SardarSale
29 Jul 2026, Major holder
- Shares
- 6,611
- Price
- $16.71
- Value
- $110,470
- Biglari, SardarSale
17 Jul 2026, Major holder
- Shares
- 11,000
- Price
- $16.71
- Value
- $183,810
- Biglari, SardarSale
16 Jul 2026, Major holder
- Shares
- 2,749
- Price
- $16.70
- Value
- $45,908
- Biglari, SardarSale
15 Jul 2026, Major holder
- Shares
- 6,533
- Price
- $16.71
- Value
- $109,166
- Biglari, SardarSale
14 Jul 2026, Major holder
- Shares
- 1,211
- Price
- $16.73
- Value
- $20,260
- Biglari, SardarSale
13 Jul 2026, Major holder
- Shares
- 75,000
- Price
- $16.74
- Value
- $1.26M
- Biglari, SardarSale
2 Jul 2026, Major holder
- Shares
- 9,525
- Price
- $16.92
- Value
- $161,163
- Biglari, SardarSale
1 Jul 2026, Major holder
- Shares
- 132,421
- Price
- $17.27
- Value
- $2.29M
- Biglari, SardarSale
30 Jun 2026, Major holder
- Shares
- 22,600
- Price
- $16.91
- Value
- $382,166
- Biglari, SardarSale
29 Jun 2026, Major holder
- Shares
- 100,000
- Price
- $16.58
- Value
- $1.66M
- Biglari, SardarSale
26 Jun 2026, Major holder
- Shares
- 100,000
- Price
- $16.75
- Value
- $1.68M
Partial trades from one filing are shown in one row, with the average price.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at El Pollo Loco Holdings
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
602 rated companies in Consumer Cyclical
- This company
- 60
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Restaurants
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGHDL $582.48M48
- Elior GroupELIOR.PA $543.85M42
- AmRest HoldingsEAT.MC $532.29M45
- Portillo'sPTLO $514.16M48
- Ibersol, S.G.P.S.IBS.LS $470.34M57
- Dine Brands GlobalDIN $457.13M63
- Nordrest HoldingNREST.ST $350.45M79
- Kura Sushi USAKRUS $334.03M28
ETFs that hold El Pollo Loco Holdings
Held by 2 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| State Street SPDR Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRR | 0.02% | 0.30% | €4.22B |
| Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF 1CXRS2 | 0.02% | 0.30% | €2.17B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 17 Oct 2025)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.