NetScout Systems stock: fair value
NTCTThe fair value of NetScout Systems under our model is $59.67, the price is 45% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $45.90 and expensive above $85.25 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $74.56 (cash-flow model) and $44.78 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9.3%. At 10.3% the fair value would be $53.88, at 8.3% it would be $68.08.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (25.6).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 9.3% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.22 times a risk premium of 4.5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $74.56 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 9.3%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 9.3%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $298.65M | extrapolated at 4.0% | 0.9152 | $273.33M |
| 2028 | $310.45M | extrapolated at 4.0% | 0.8376 | $260.03M |
| 2029 | $322.6M | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.7666 | $247.3M |
| 2030 | $335.14M | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.7016 | $235.13M |
| 2031 | $348.12M | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.6421 | $223.53M |
| 2032 | $361.55M | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.5877 | $212.47M |
| 2033 | $375.47M | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.5378 | $201.94M |
| 2034 | $389.91M | extrapolated at 3.8% | 0.4922 | $191.92M |
| 2035 | $404.88M | extrapolated at 3.8% | 0.4505 | $182.39M |
| 2036 | $420.41M | extrapolated at 3.8% | 0.4123 | $173.33M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $2.2B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2036 × (1 + 3.8%) / (9.3% − 3.8%) | $8.03B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4123) | $3.31B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $5.51B |
| Shares (diluted) | 73.94M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $74.56 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $1.75 |
| × 25.6 (industry P/E) | $44.78 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $59.67 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2026, period end 31 Mar 2026
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 31 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.