Nayax stock: fair value
NYAXThe fair value of Nayax under our model is $35.73, the price is 46% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $25.52 and expensive above $59.55 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $65.90 (cash-flow model) and $5.56 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 12.5%. At 13.5% the fair value would be $31.85, at 11.5% it would be $40.65.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (25.6).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 12.5% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.37 times a risk premium of 6.3%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $65.90 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 12.5%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 12.5%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $93.77M | extrapolated at 54.3% | 0.8890 | $83.36M |
| 2027 | $130.46M | extrapolated at 39.1% | 0.7903 | $103.1M |
| 2028 | $167.69M | extrapolated at 28.5% | 0.7025 | $117.81M |
| 2029 | $203.12M | extrapolated at 21.1% | 0.6245 | $126.85M |
| 2030 | $235.49M | extrapolated at 15.9% | 0.5552 | $130.74M |
| 2031 | $264.46M | extrapolated at 12.3% | 0.4935 | $130.52M |
| 2032 | $290.28M | extrapolated at 9.8% | 0.4387 | $127.36M |
| 2033 | $313.46M | extrapolated at 8.0% | 0.3900 | $122.25M |
| 2034 | $334.57M | extrapolated at 6.7% | 0.3467 | $116M |
| 2035 | $354.19M | extrapolated at 5.9% | 0.3082 | $109.17M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.17B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (12.5% − 3.8%) | $4.25B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3082) | $1.31B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $2.48B |
| Shares (diluted) | 37.58M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $65.90 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.22 |
| × 25.6 (industry P/E) | $5.56 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $35.73 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral since 10 Nov 2026, previously Weak
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.