National Fuel Gas stock
NFGNYSENational Fuel Gas Company, EnergyISIN US6361801011
62Score 62 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
35 / 100
Price history
−5.5% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 8.9% below it.
Since June 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Sharply down: the price has fallen very quickly lately (RSI 29).
The price is 21% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 58% (June 2014 to March 2020).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$79.17
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$83.12
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)29
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$73.43
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$96.30
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- National Fuel Gas Company belongs to the Oil & Gas Integrated industry (United States) and, with a market value of $7.19B, is number 22 of 25 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2026 it reported revenue of $2.52B (up 10.4% year on year) and earnings of $665.44M (up 28.3%).
- For fiscal 2027, analysts expect on average revenue of $3.03B (up 20.4%) and adjusted earnings per share of $7.45 (down 1.1%).
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- MEQIRI Score 62 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 119 of 266 in Energy, median 60.
- The P/E is 10.9 (Oil & Gas Integrated median 11.3, own median of recent years 13.2).
- Our model puts fair value at $134.54, with the price 44% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Reliable dividendNo dividend cut for over 39 years.Capital allocation 50
- Below fair valuePrice 44% below the fair value of $134.54.Valuation 77
- High marginNet margin 26.5% over the last 12 months, Oil & Gas Integrated median 6.8%.Profitability 82
Weaknesses
None of our weakness checks flags anything. Crash risk is measured separately.
Its standout strengths are profitability and valuation, while momentum and technical analysis hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
The fundamentals are in the middle range.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 36 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- cyclical sector (energy or materials), as a group, crashed more often in the backtest
Valuation
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $96.10 and expensive above $224.23 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $190.78 (cash-flow model) and $78.29 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $118.14, at 7.8% it would be $159.17.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (11.3).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In fiscal 2026, revenue rose 10.4% on the prior year. Revenue has stayed largely stable since 2007.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2026: gross 88%, operating 39%, net 26%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterModerate debt, and interest is adequately covered.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 27 Jan 2027in 76 days
- Last reported
- 4 Nov 2026EPS reported $1.22 (expected $1.04)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $7.45+0.3%
- Revenue
- $3.03B0.0%
- Earnings per share
- $7.64+1.7%
- Revenue
- $2.96B+0.3%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook confirmed
Share price after the results: +1.7%Long-term outlook updated: earnings per share expected to grow 7% to 10% per year on average through fiscal 2029, with no comparison to before.
“Assuming the current forward curve for natural gas prices, we now expect earnings per share to grow between 7% and 10% per year on average through fiscal '29.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 30 Jul 2026 (fiscal Q3 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases or sales in the last 6 months.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at National Fuel Gas
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
266 rated companies in Energy
- This company
- 62
- Sector median
- 60
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Oil & Gas Integrated
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- EcopetrolEC $31.45B74
- OMVOMV.VI $26.15B71
- Galp Energia, SGPSGALP.LS $15.28B71
- YPF Sociedad AnónimaYPF $14.65B57
- Oil IndiaOIL.NS $7.74B62
- Guanghui Energy600256.SS $6.4B67
- Transportadora de Gas del SurTGS $3.2B66
- Deutsche RohstoffDR0.DE $384.81M63
ETFs that hold National Fuel Gas
Held by 12 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Dividend Aristocrats UCITS ETF (Dist)SPYD | 0.28% | 0.35% | €3.62B |
| State Street SPDR S&P 400 U.S. Mid Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)SPY4 | 0.21% | 0.30% | €5.27B |
| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.11% | 0.30% | €944.34M |
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| Franklin U.S. Equity UCITS ETFFLXU | 0.09% | 0.20% | €55.89M |
| State Street SPDR Morningstar Multi-Asset Global Infrastructure UCITS ETF (Dist)ZPRI | 0.07% | 0.40% | €622.34M |
| iShares MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETFIUSN | 0.06% | 0.35% | €8.19B |
| iShares World Equity High Income Active UCITS ETF USDWINC | 0.04% | 0.35% | €942.02M |
| UBS MSCI USA Select Factor Mix UCITS ETF USD accUSUE | 0.02% | 0.25% | €175.89M |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2026, period end 30 Sep 2026
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 21 Nov 2025)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.