Hello Group stock
MOMONASDAQHello Group Inc., Communication ServicesISIN US4234031049
60Score 60 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
40 / 100
Price history
−36% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 12 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 23% below it.
Since November 2025 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 45).
The price is 38% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 12 years: 92% (June 2018 to April 2022).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$4.75
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$5.71
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)45
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$4.39
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$7.06
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Hello Group Inc. belongs to the Internet Content & Information industry (China) and, with a market value of $632M, is number 42 of 46 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- This is an American depositary receipt (ADR).
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $1.55B (down 1.9% year on year) and earnings of $120.57M (down 22.7%).
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- MEQIRI Score 60 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 103 of 232 in Communication Services, median 58.
- The P/E is 4.1 (Internet Content & Information median 16.1, own median of recent years 10.1).
- Our model puts fair value at $16.46, with the price 73% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Modestly valuedP/E 4.1, Internet Content & Information median 16.1, own median 10.1.Valuation 100
- Share buybacksShare count down 24% since 2020.Capital allocation 87
- High dividend yieldDividend yield 6.36%, Internet Content & Information median 2.59%.Capital allocation 87
Weaknesses
- Revenue shrinkingRevenue down 7.2% a year since 2020.Growth 5
- Analysts expect falling earningsDown 5.6% a year through 2027 (estimates from 4 analysts).Growth 5
- Earnings per share fallingDown 14.3% a year since 2020.Growth 5
Its standout strengths are valuation and stability, while momentum and growth hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 61 to 60.
Fundamentals are strong, with stable profits and strong cash generation.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk low
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the lowest crash risk among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 14 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- price far below its 52-week high
- weak momentum
What lowers it
- solid fundamentals
- low growth grade (crashed less often in the backtest)
- price not overheated over the past year
Valuation
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $12.66 and expensive above $23.51 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $15.77 (cash-flow model) and $17.14 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.7%. At 9.7% the fair value would be $15.37, at 7.7% it would be $17.95.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but weak growth.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (16.1).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Jun 2026, revenue fell 3.4% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown strongly since 2014, at around 39% per year. From 2014 revenue is reported differently (for example gross instead of net), so earlier years are not comparable and not shown.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 38%, operating 13%, net 8%. From 2014 revenue is reported differently (for example gross instead of net), so earlier years are not comparable and not shown.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterThe balance sheet is solid, with low debt and comfortable interest coverage.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 7 Dec 2026in 24 days
- Last reported
- 3 Sep 2026above expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- 5.33+0.2%
- Revenue
- $1.47B+0.2%
- Earnings per share
- 5.79+0.2%
- Revenue
- $1.51B+0.2%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook lowered
Share price after the results: −2.2%Outlook lowered: the domestic business is guided to decline by a high-teens percentage in Q3, and the earlier hoped-for narrowing of the decline is adjusted downward.
“As you may see, our Q3 guidance implies roughly a high teens year over year decline for the domestic business widening from a 17% year-over-year decline rate. And that underperforms our earlier expectation that in the second half, business could see year-over-year decline rate narrowing down from first half.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 3 Sep 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases or sales in the last 6 months.
- Wen JianhuaSale
31 Mar 2026, Chief Technology Officer
- Shares
- 4,218
- Price
- $5.70
- Value
- $24,059
Shares and prices per ordinary share as filed with the SEC, not per depositary receipt.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Hello Group
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
232 rated companies in Communication Services
- This company
- 60
- Sector median
- 58
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Internet Content & Information
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- BumbleBMBL $803.1M51
- Nextdoor HoldingsNXDR $792.91M49
- MediaAlphaMAX $753.89M64
- Cars.comCARS $718.35M67
- Taboola.comTBLA $584.9M50
- GrouponGRPN $488.48M26
- NerdWalletNRDS $464.05M64
- Sohu.comSOHU $359.88M43
ETFs that hold Hello Group
Held by 9 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| State Street SPDR MSCI Emerging Markets Small Cap UCITS ETFSPYX | 0.04% | 0.55% | €528.3M |
| iShares MSCI EM Small Cap UCITS ETFEUNI | 0.03% | 0.74% | €279.38M |
| Avantis Emerging Markets Equity UCITS ETF USD AccAVEM | 0.02% | 0.35% | €284.54M |
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| iShares MSCI EM IMI Screened UCITS ETF USD (Acc)AYEM | 0.01% | 0.18% | €5.26B |
| iShares Core MSCI EM IMI UCITS ETFIS3N | 0.00% | 0.18% | €37.98B |
| Vanguard FTSE Global All-Cap UCITS ETF Accum USDVGLA | 0.00% | 0.07% | €3.9B |
| Vanguard ESG Global All Cap UCITS ETF (USD) AccumulatingV3AA | 0.00% | 0.24% | €1.69B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 31 Jul 2023)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.