Mach Natural Resources stock
MNRNYSEMach Natural Resources LP, EnergyISIN US55445L1008
54Score 54 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
24 / 100
Price history
−23% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 3 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 28% below it.
Since September 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Sharply down: the price has fallen very quickly lately (RSI 20).
The price is 39% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 3 years: 57% (April 2024 to November 2026).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$10.83
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$12.59
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)20
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$9.00
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$14.91
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Mach Natural Resources LP belongs to the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry (United States) and, with a market value of $1.52B, is number 47 of 69 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $1.18B (up 21.2% year on year) and earnings of $142.98M (down 22.8%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $1.53B (up 30.5%) and adjusted earnings per share of $1.38.
Show more
- MEQIRI Score 54 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 169 of 266 in Energy, median 60.
- Our model puts fair value at $24.68, with the price 63% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Growing faster than its industryRevenue up 31.5% a year since 2021, Oil & Gas Exploration & Production median 20.4%.
- Below fair valuePrice 63% below the fair value of $24.68.Valuation 100
Weaknesses
- DilutionShare count up 38% since 2021.Capital allocation 37
- Dividend not coveredPayouts over the last 12 months were 115% of earnings and 220% of free cash flow.Capital allocation 37
- Dividend at riskDividend yield 19.8%. At yields this high (15% or more), the dividend was cut by at least a fifth within a year in 69 of 100 cases from 2011 to 2025, against 7 of 100 at 2 to 4%.Capital allocation 37
Its standout strengths are valuation and fundamentals, while technical analysis and momentum hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Fundamentals are strong, with stable profits and strong cash generation.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 36 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- cyclical sector (energy or materials), as a group, crashed more often in the backtest
- price far below its 52-week high
- weak momentum
What lowers it
- solid fundamentals
Valuation
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $18.98 and expensive above $35.26 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $20.89, at 7.8% it would be $30.34.
Valuation metrics
From the cash-flow model alone; the profit includes one-off items, so there is no industry value.
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 46.2% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown strongly since 2021, at around 32% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 33%, operating 29%, net 12%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterDebt is moderate, but interest coverage is weak. Keep an eye on the interest burden and refinancing.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 11 Mar 2027in 119 days
- Last reported
- 5 Nov 2026EPS reported $0.06 (expected $0.33)below expectations
Analyst estimates
Analysts have raised their 2027 earnings estimate by 7.6% since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $1.38+2.6%
- Revenue
- $1.53B+1.3%
- Earnings per share
- $1.42+7.6%
- Revenue
- $1.42B+1.7%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
2 insiders bought on the open market in the last 6 months, $3.4M in total.
- Ward Tom L.Purchase
10 Nov 2026, 10 percent owner, officer, other: See Remarks
- Shares
- 55,000
- Price
- $9.13
- Value
- $502,150
- Ward Tom L.Purchase
9 Nov 2026, 10 percent owner, officer, other: See Remarks
- Shares
- 55,000
- Price
- $9.21
- Value
- $506,550
- McMullen William WallacePurchase
15 Sept 2026, Board
- Shares
- 34,514
- Price
- $11.27
- Value
- $388,902
Show 1 more
- Ward Tom L.Purchase
14 Sept 2026, 10 percent owner, officer, other: See Remarks
- Shares
- 172,413
- Price
- $11.60
- Value
- $2M
Partial trades from one filing are shown in one row, with the average price.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Mach Natural Resources
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
266 rated companies in Energy
- This company
- 54
- Sector median
- 60
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- NextdecadeNEXT $1.76B27
- Vermilion EnergyVET $1.63B47
- Etablissements Maurel & PromMAU.PA $1.59B58
- Kimbell Royalty PartnersKRP $1.54B61
- BlueNordBNOR.OL $1.46B48
- Dorchester MineralsDMLP $1.38B85
- Kosmos EnergyKOS $1.21B38
- Diversified EnergyDEC $1.06B58
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 25 Oct 2024)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.