Holcim stock: fair value
HOLN.SWThe fair value of Holcim under our model is $47.06, the price is 92% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $36.20 and expensive above $67.23 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 5.6%. At 6.6% the fair value would be $39.39, at 4.6% it would be $58.57.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; the profit comes largely from discontinued operations, so there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 0.6%. Discounted at 5.6% (floor: government bond yield 0.6% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 1.11 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $47.06 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 5.6%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 5.6%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.53B | extrapolated at −7.6% | 0.9470 | $1.45B |
| 2027 | $1.46B | extrapolated at −5.1% | 0.8968 | $1.3B |
| 2028 | $1.41B | extrapolated at −3.4% | 0.8492 | $1.19B |
| 2029 | $1.37B | extrapolated at −2.2% | 0.8042 | $1.11B |
| 2030 | $1.36B | extrapolated at −1.4% | 0.7615 | $1.03B |
| 2031 | $1.35B | extrapolated at −0.8% | 0.7211 | $970M |
| 2032 | $1.34B | extrapolated at −0.4% | 0.6829 | $915.23M |
| 2033 | $1.34B | extrapolated at −0.1% | 0.6467 | $866.05M |
| 2034 | $1.34B | extrapolated at 0.1% | 0.6124 | $821.17M |
| 2035 | $1.34B | extrapolated at 0.3% | 0.5799 | $779.72M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $10.44B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 0.6%) / (5.6% − 0.6%) | $27.05B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.5799) | $15.69B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $26.13B |
| Shares (diluted) | 555.18M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $47.06 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $47.06 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CHF 0.8331)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 27 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.