UltraTech Cement stock: fair value
ULTRACEMCO.NSThe fair value of UltraTech Cement under our model is $52.19, the price is 151% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $37.28 and expensive above $86.99 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $16.54 (cash-flow model) and $87.85 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 13.8%. At 14.8% the fair value would be $51.19, at 12.8% it would be $53.54.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (27.6).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 6.9%. Discounted at 13.8% (government bond yield 6.9% plus beta 0.97 times a risk premium of 7.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $16.54 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 13.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 13.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $429.94M | extrapolated at −7.0% | 0.8786 | $377.74M |
| 2028 | $417.67M | extrapolated at −2.9% | 0.7719 | $322.39M |
| 2029 | $418.02M | extrapolated at 0.1% | 0.6782 | $283.48M |
| 2030 | $426.97M | extrapolated at 2.1% | 0.5958 | $254.39M |
| 2031 | $442.26M | extrapolated at 3.6% | 0.5235 | $231.5M |
| 2032 | $462.55M | extrapolated at 4.6% | 0.4599 | $212.73M |
| 2033 | $487.04M | extrapolated at 5.3% | 0.4040 | $196.79M |
| 2034 | $515.23M | extrapolated at 5.8% | 0.3550 | $182.9M |
| 2035 | $546.83M | extrapolated at 6.1% | 0.3119 | $170.55M |
| 2036 | $581.69M | extrapolated at 6.4% | 0.2740 | $159.39M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $2.39B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2036 × (1 + 6.9%) / (13.8% − 6.9%) | $9.04B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.2740) | $2.48B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $4.87B |
| Shares (diluted) | 294.34M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $16.54 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $3.18 |
| × 27.6 (industry P/E) | $87.85 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $52.19 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2026, period end 31 Mar 2026
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = ₹94.0836)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 3 Jan 2025)
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.