Harley-Davidson stock
HOGNYSEHarley-Davidson, Inc., Consumer CyclicalISIN US4128221086
58Score 58 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
83 / 100
Price history
+34% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 39% above it.
Since June 2026 the 50-day line has been above the 200-day line; the trend has turned up.
Overheated: the price has risen very quickly lately (RSI 74).
The price is 1.8% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 89% (January 2007 to March 2009).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$28.13
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$24.51
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)74
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$17.19
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$34.59
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Harley-Davidson, Inc. belongs to the Auto (Manufacturers) industry (United States) and, with a market value of $3.43B, is number 50 of 55 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $4.47B (down 13.8% year on year) and earnings of $338.74M (down 25.6%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $3.82B (down 14.6%) and adjusted earnings per share of $0.77 (down 70.6%).
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- MEQIRI Score 58 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 354 of 602 in Consumer Cyclical, median 61.
- Our model puts fair value at $94.53, with the price 64% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Earnings per share growingUp 219.3% a year since 2020.
- Share buybacksShare count down 22% since 2020.Capital allocation 61
- Consistently profitableProfit in all 10 fiscal years from 2016 to 2025.Fundamentals 70
Weaknesses
- Loss-makingLoss of $132.79M over the last 12 months.
- Margin fallingOperating margin 8.6%, average of the prior years 13.3% (to 2024).Profitability 15
Its standout strengths are valuation and momentum, while profitability and growth hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 57 to 58.
Fundamentals are strong, with stable profits.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk low
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the lowest crash risk among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 14 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What lowers it
- low growth grade (crashed less often in the backtest)
- price near its 52-week high
- stable momentum
Valuation
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $72.71 and expensive above $135.04 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 10.4%. At 11.4% the fair value would be $80.11, at 9.4% it would be $114.30.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but weak growth.
Valuation metrics
From the cash-flow model alone; without earnings there is no industry value.
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue fell 17.4% on the twelve months before. Revenue has stayed largely stable since 2006.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 30%, operating 9%, net 8%. Last 12 months: net −3%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterThe balance sheet is solid, with moderate debt and comfortable interest coverage.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 9 Feb 2027in 89 days
- Last reported
- 29 Oct 2026EPS reported $0.40 (expected $0.47)below expectations
Analyst estimates
Analysts have raised their 2027 earnings estimate by 9.4% since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $0.77+9.0%
- Revenue
- $3.82B−1.1%
- Earnings per share
- $2.12+9.4%
- Revenue
- $4.04B+0.3%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook raised
Share price after the results: −7.7%Guidance raised: retail units of 133,500 to 138,500, HDMC operating income of $10 million to $50 million and HDFS operating income of $55 million to $70 million.
“At HDMC, we now expect operating income of $10 million to $50 million. This is up from our previous range of positive $10 million to a loss of $40 million.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 23 Jul 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
3 insiders bought on the open market between 31 Jul 2026 and 11 Aug 2026, $1.44M in total. One insider sold, $195,025 in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
- Root Jonathan RSale
1 Oct 2026, CFO and CCO
- Shares
- 1,559
- Price
- $24.43
- Value
- $38,086
- Root Jonathan RSale
1 Sept 2026, CFO and CCO
- Shares
- 1,554
- Price
- $27.46
- Value
- $42,673
- Littleton GaylePurchase
11 Aug 2026, CLO, CCO, CAO & Corp Secretary
- Shares
- 7,500
- Price
- $26.38
- Value
- $197,850
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- Starrs ArtiePurchase
10 Aug 2026, President & CEO
- Shares
- 10,000
- Price
- $25.89
- Value
- $258,941
- Root Jonathan RSale
3 Aug 2026, CFO and CCO
- Shares
- 1,554
- Price
- $24.88
- Value
- $38,664
- Nova Daniel JPurchase
31 Jul 2026, Board
- Shares
- 40,000
- Price
- $24.57
- Value
- $982,700
- Root Jonathan RSale
1 Jul 2026, CFO and CCO
- Shares
- 1,554
- Price
- $24.44
- Value
- $37,980
- Root Jonathan RSale
19 May 2026, CFO and CCO
- Shares
- 1,554
- Price
- $24.21
- Value
- $37,622
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Harley-Davidson
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
602 rated companies in Consumer Cyclical
- This company
- 58
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Auto (Manufacturers)
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology9863.HK $5.8B36
- ARCHION543A.T $5.21B57
- Iveco GroupIVG.MI $4.27B44
- Volvo Car AB (publ.)VOLCAR-B.ST $3.58B38
- Blue BirdBLBD $1.97B67
- Lucid GroupLCID $1.45B30
- Bajaj MobilityBMAG.VI $1.24B47
- Piaggio & C.PIA.MI $872.86M59
ETFs that hold Harley-Davidson
Held by 16 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avantis Global Small Cap Value UCITS ETFAVWS | 0.41% | 0.39% | €1.47B |
| iShares MSCI USA Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFSXRG | 0.27% | 0.43% | €2.48B |
| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.21% | 0.30% | €944.34M |
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| iShares MSCI World Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFCBUG | 0.17% | 0.35% | €434.1M |
| L&G Russell 2000 US Small Cap Quality UCITS ETFETLZ | 0.16% | 0.30% | €185.82M |
| State Street SPDR Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRR | 0.13% | 0.30% | €4.22B |
| Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF 1CXRS2 | 0.12% | 0.30% | €2.17B |
| State Street SPDR S&P 400 U.S. Mid Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)SPY4 | 0.10% | 0.30% | €5.27B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 24 Oct 2025)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.