Blue Bird stock
BLBDNASDAQBlue Bird Corporation, Consumer CyclicalISIN US0953061068
67Score 67 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
48 / 100
Price history
+13% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 13 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 9.4% below it.
Since October 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 52).
The price is 29% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 13 years: 74% (April 2021 to October 2022).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$58.44
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$63.54
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)52
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$46.59
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$81.50
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Blue Bird Corporation belongs to the Auto (Manufacturers) industry (United States) and, with a market value of $1.97B, is number 51 of 55 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $1.48B (up 9.9% year on year) and earnings of $127.72M (up 21%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $1.75B (up 18.4%) and adjusted earnings per share of $4.81 (up 9.5%).
Show more
- MEQIRI Score 67 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 213 of 602 in Consumer Cyclical, median 61.
- Our model puts fair value at $97.19, with the price 41% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- High return on capitalReturn on invested capital 101.8% in fiscal 2025, Auto (Manufacturers) median 1.2%.Profitability 76
- Earnings per share growingUp 64.8% a year since 2020.Growth 78
- Below fair valuePrice 41% below the fair value of $97.19.Valuation 75
Weaknesses
- DilutionShare count up 19% since 2020.Capital allocation 54
Its standout strengths are stability and growth, while technical analysis holds the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
The fundamentals are in the middle range.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 36 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
Valuation
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $69.42 and expensive above $161.98 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $80.77, at 7.8% it would be $121.82.
Valuation metrics
From the cash-flow model alone; the profit includes one-off items, so there is no industry value.
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 27 Jun 2026, revenue rose 13.5% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown solidly since 2012, at about 7% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 21%, operating 11%, net 9%. Last 12 months: net 17%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterThe balance sheet is solid, with low debt and comfortable interest coverage.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 23 Nov 2026in 11 days
- Last reported
- 5 Aug 2026EPS reported $1.28 (expected $1.25)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $4.440.0%
- Revenue
- $2.01B0.0%
- Earnings per share
- $5.50−2.0%
- Revenue
- $2.24B0.0%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook raised
Share price after the results: −15.2%Adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $247 million (range $245 million to $250 million), long-term goal raised to about $3 billion in revenue.
“And given our beat in Q3, we are raising our guidance for adjusted EBITDA to $247 million or approximately 14% with a range of $245 million to $250.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 5 Aug 2026 (fiscal Q3 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
One insider bought on the open market in the last 6 months, $42,057 in total. One insider sold, $249,600 in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Blue Bird
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
602 rated companies in Consumer Cyclical
- This company
- 67
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Auto (Manufacturers)
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- ARCHION543A.T $5.21B57
- Iveco GroupIVG.MI $4.27B44
- Volvo Car AB (publ.)VOLCAR-B.ST $3.58B38
- Harley-DavidsonHOG $3.43B58
- Lucid GroupLCID $1.45B30
- Bajaj MobilityBMAG.VI $1.24B47
- Piaggio & C.PIA.MI $872.86M59
- Polestar Automotive Holding UKPSNY $796.82M28
ETFs that hold Blue Bird
Held by 13 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Invesco Global Clean Energy UCITS ETF AccumUSDG1CE | 0.96% | 0.60% | €87.44M |
| iShares Electric Vehicles and Driving Technology UCITS ETFIEVD | 0.27% | 0.40% | €488.62M |
| L&G Russell 2000 US Small Cap Quality UCITS ETFETLZ | 0.09% | 0.30% | €185.82M |
Show 5 more
| Avantis Global Small Cap Value UCITS ETFAVWS | 0.08% | 0.39% | €1.47B |
| Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF 1CXRS2 | 0.06% | 0.30% | €2.17B |
| State Street SPDR Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRR | 0.06% | 0.30% | €4.22B |
| iShares MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETFIUSN | 0.02% | 0.35% | €8.19B |
| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.02% | 0.30% | €944.34M |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 27 Sep 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 6 Nov 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.