Hilton Grand Vacations stock
HGVNYSEHilton Grand Vacations Inc., Consumer CyclicalISIN US43283X1054
69Score 69 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
55 / 100
Price history
+8.7% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 10 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 1.3% below it.
Since September 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Overheated: the price has risen very quickly lately (RSI 83).
The price is 20% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 10 years: 78% (March 2018 to March 2020).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$37.74
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$44.50
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)83
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$34.05
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$54.69
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. belongs to the Travel Lodging industry (United States) and, with a market value of $3.33B, is number 11 of 15 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $5.05B (up 1.3% year on year) and earnings of $81M (up 72.3%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $5.65B (up 11.9%) and adjusted earnings per share of $6.04 (up 186.4%).
Show more
- MEQIRI Score 69 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 173 of 596 in Consumer Cyclical, median 61.
- The P/E is 8.3 (Travel Lodging median 29.7, own median of recent years 14.2).
- Our model puts fair value at $127.32, with the price 66% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Growing faster than its industryRevenue up 41.4% a year since 2020, Travel Lodging median 21.4%.Growth 83
- Modestly valuedP/E 8.3, Travel Lodging median 29.7, own median 14.2.Valuation 99
- Earnings turn into cashFree cash flow 116% of earnings over the last 12 months.Fundamentals 77
Weaknesses
- High debtDebt 5.37 times equity (latest quarter), Travel Lodging median 2.17.Stability 39
- Interest barely coveredOperating profit covers interest only 1.6 times.Stability 39
- Margin fallingOperating margin 11.1%, average of the prior years 17.2% (to 2024).Profitability 66
Its standout strengths are valuation and growth, while stability holds the score back.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 70 to 69.
Fundamentals are strong, with stable profits and strong cash generation.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk medium
How well MEQIRI warnsIn the middle among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 20 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- high growth grade (crashed more often in the backtest)
Valuation
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $97.94 and expensive above $181.88 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $97.01 (cash-flow model) and $157.62 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 11.7%. At 12.7% the fair value would be $121.49, at 10.7% it would be $134.86.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but high risk.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (29.7).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 23.3% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown strongly since 2013, at around 13% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 57%, operating 11%, net 2%. Last 12 months: net 7%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterDebt is elevated. Keep an eye on the interest burden and refinancing.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 25 Feb 2027in 104 days
- Last reported
- 29 Oct 2026EPS reported $4.03 (expected $1.08)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Analysts have cut their 2027 earnings estimate by 4.6% since 15 Oct 2026. Falling estimates often precede bad news.
- Earnings per share
- $6.04+24.9%
- Revenue
- $5.65B+3.1%
- Earnings per share
- $5.06−4.6%
- Revenue
- $5.61B−1.8%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook lowered
Share price after the results: +8.2%Hilton Grand Vacations lowered its 2026 EBITDA guidance to $1.165 billion to $1.180 billion from a prior $1.225 billion to $1.265 billion, citing weaker contract sales and a slower ramp in sales execution improvements. Full-year contract sales are now expected to decline in the mid-single digits …
“As you saw in today's release, we are reducing our EBITDA guidance for the year to $1,165 million to $1,180 million from our prior $1,225 million to $1,265 million.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 29 Oct 2026 (fiscal Q3 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
2 insiders bought on the open market in the last 6 months, $603,099 in total. 3 insiders sold, $15.33M in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
- Corbin Charles R. Jr.Sale
4 Nov 2026, See Remarks
- Shares
- 60,401
- Price
- $43.41
- Value
- $2.62M
- Potter LeonardPurchase
3 Nov 2026, Board
- Shares
- 2,500
- Price
- $41.55
- Value
- $103,875
- Wang Mark DPurchase
2 Nov 2026, See Remarks
- Shares
- 12,200
- Price
- $40.92
- Value
- $499,224
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- Corbin Charles R. Jr.Sale
6 Aug 2026, See Remarks
- Shares
- 20,691
- Price
- $46.90
- Value
- $970,408
- Wang Mark DSale
28 May 2026, See Remarks
- Shares
- 190,813
- Price
- $51.93
- Value
- $9.91M
- Corbin Charles R. Jr.Sale
21 May 2026, See Remarks
- Shares
- 32,907
- Price
- $47.66
- Value
- $1.57M
- Hernandez CarlosSale
19 May 2026, See Remarks
- Shares
- 5,595
- Price
- $46.69
- Value
- $261,203
Partial trades from one filing are shown in one row, with the average price.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Hilton Grand Vacations
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
596 rated companies in Consumer Cyclical
- This company
- 69
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Travel Lodging
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- AccorAC.PA $13.34B66
- Wyndham Hotels & ResortsWH $5.86B69
- Choice Hotels InternationalCHH $5.26B75
- Atour Lifestyle HoldingsATAT $5.09B83
- Meliá Hotels InternationalMEL.MC $2.7B59
- Scandic Hotels GroupSHOT.ST $2.24B61
- Pierre et VacancesVAC.PA $960.28M55
- CiveoCVEO $375.54M46
ETFs that hold Hilton Grand Vacations
Held by 13 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| State Street SPDR Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRR | 0.09% | 0.30% | €4.28B |
| iShares MSCI World Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFCBUG | 0.09% | 0.10% | €395.74M |
| Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF 1CXRS2 | 0.09% | 0.30% | €2.22B |
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| iShares MSCI USA Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFSXRG | 0.09% | 0.43% | €2.5B |
| L&G Russell 2000 US Small Cap Quality UCITS ETFETLZ | 0.08% | 0.30% | €185.82M |
| State Street SPDR S&P 400 U.S. Mid Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)SPY4 | 0.07% | 0.30% | €5.36B |
| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.05% | 0.30% | €964.08M |
| Invesco Global Buyback Achievers UCITS ETFBBCK | 0.05% | 0.39% | €190.04M |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral since 13 Nov 2026, previously Strong
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.