Warrior Met Coal stock
HCCNYSEWarrior Met Coal, Inc., EnergyISIN US93627C1018
65Score 65 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
61 / 100
Price history
+0.2% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 10 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 5.8% below it.
Since September 2026 the 50-day line has been above the 200-day line; the trend has turned up.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 47).
The price is 24% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 10 years: 70% (May 2019 to March 2020).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$89.68
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$89.48
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)47
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$73.07
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$110.28
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Warrior Met Coal, Inc. belongs to the Coal industry (United States) and, with a market value of $4.45B, is number 10 of 18 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $1.31B (down 14.1% year on year) and earnings of $57M (down 77.3%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $2.04B (up 55.7%) and adjusted earnings per share of $5.90 (up 441.2%).
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- MEQIRI Score 65 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 89 of 266 in Energy, median 60.
- The P/E is 19.2 (Energy sector median 13.6, own median of recent years 5.1).
- Our model puts fair value at $163.48, with the price 49% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Below fair valuePrice 49% below the fair value of $163.48.Valuation 85
- Analysts expect strong earnings growthUp 28.1% a year through 2028 (estimates from 6 analysts).Growth 78
- More cash than debtCash $447.26M, financial debt $232.37M.Stability 72
Weaknesses
- Margin fallingOperating margin 3.5%, average of the prior years 23% (to 2024).Profitability 57
- Richly valuedP/E 19.2, Energy sector median 13.6, own median 5.1.
- Volatile share priceVolatility 46% a year over the last 12 months.
Its standout strengths are valuation and growth, while momentum holds the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
The fundamentals are in the middle range.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 36 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- cyclical sector (energy or materials), as a group, crashed more often in the backtest
- high price swings
Valuation
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedClosing price of 11 Nov 2026, used by the daily score.
In our model the price counts as cheap below $116.77 and expensive above $272.47 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $267.16 (cash-flow model) and $59.81 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $137.78, at 7.8% it would be $202.35.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the sector P/E (13.6).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 52.2% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown solidly since 2015, at about 9% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 8%, operating 3%, net 4%. Last 12 months: net 12%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterLow debt, and interest is adequately covered.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 11 Feb 2027in 91 days
- Last reported
- 4 Nov 2026EPS reported $0.93 (expected $1.42)below expectations
Analyst estimates
Analysts have cut their 2026 earnings estimate by 10.9% since 15 Oct 2026. Falling estimates often precede bad news.
- Earnings per share
- $5.90−10.9%
- Revenue
- $2.04B+0.1%
- Earnings per share
- $9.54−2.1%
- Revenue
- $2.31B+0.9%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook raised
Share price after the results: +10.0%Sales and production volume guidance raised by 0.5 million tons, Blue Creek now 5 million short tons, of which 90% is already under contract.
“This will increase Blue Creek sales volume to 5 million short tons for the full year, of which 90% is already under contract.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 5 Aug 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases in the last 6 months. 4 insiders sold, $13.79M in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Warrior Met Coal
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
266 rated companies in Energy
- This company
- 65
- Sector median
- 60
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Coal
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy002128.SZ $12.14B62
- Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development601699.SS $6.1B50
- Huaibei Mining Holdings600985.SS $5.89B47
- Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group000983.SZ $5.42B47
- Core Natural ResourcesCNR $4.07B53
- Alliance Resource PartnersARLP $3.25B68
- Peabody EnergyBTU $2.06B39
- Alpha Metallurgical ResourcesAMR $1.99B34
ETFs that hold Warrior Met Coal
Held by 13 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| iShares S&P SmallCap 600 UCITS ETFIUS3 | 0.24% | 0.30% | €2.28B |
| VanEck S&P Global Mining UCITS ETF A USDWMIN | 0.22% | 0.50% | €1.98B |
| Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF 1CXRS2 | 0.15% | 0.30% | €2.17B |
Show 5 more
| State Street SPDR Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRR | 0.15% | 0.30% | €4.22B |
| L&G Russell 2000 US Small Cap Quality UCITS ETFETLZ | 0.14% | 0.30% | €185.82M |
| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.06% | 0.30% | €944.34M |
| State Street SPDR MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRS | 0.04% | 0.45% | €1.53B |
| iShares MSCI USA Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFSXRG | 0.02% | 0.43% | €2.48B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 1 May 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.