Graphic Packaging Holding stock
GPKNYSEGraphic Packaging Holding Company, Consumer CyclicalISIN US3886891015
47Score 47 out of 100, Weak
Price and trend
66 / 100
Price history
−31% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 2.9% above it.
Since January 2025 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Overheated: the price has risen very quickly lately (RSI 70).
The price is 34% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 90% (July 2007 to February 2009).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$9.41
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$10.49
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)70
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$8.24
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$16.39
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Graphic Packaging Holding Company belongs to the Packaging & Containers industry (United States) and, with a market value of $3.19B, is number 16 of 34 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $8.62B (down 2.2% year on year) and earnings of $444M (down 32.5%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $8.62B (up 0.1%) and adjusted earnings per share of $0.66 (down 63.3%).
Show more
- MEQIRI Score 47 out of 100 (Weak): rank 495 of 602 in Consumer Cyclical, median 61.
- The P/E is 43.3 because earnings over the last twelve months collapsed; on the expected earnings of the next twelve months it is 11.6 (Packaging & Containers median 19.3). The P/E therefore does not count in the score.
- Our model puts fair value at $2.91, with the price 280% above it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Earnings turn into cashFree cash flow above 500% of earnings over the last 12 months.Fundamentals 60
- Earnings per share growingUp 20% a year since 2020.
- Consistently profitableProfit in all 10 fiscal years from 2016 to 2025.Fundamentals 60
Weaknesses
- Above fair valuePrice 280% above the fair value of $2.91.Valuation 30
- High debtDebt 1.71 times equity (latest quarter), Packaging & Containers median 0.81.Stability 43
- Volatile share priceVolatility 51% a year over the last 12 months.Stability 43
The score is held back by valuation and profitability.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 46 to 47.
The fundamentals are in the middle range.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk medium
How well MEQIRI warnsIn the middle among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 20 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- price far below its 52-week high
- high price swings
Valuation
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedClosing price of 11 Nov 2026, used by the daily score.
In our model the price counts as cheap below $2.08 and expensive above $4.85 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9.3%. At 10.3% the fair value would be $2.23, at 8.3% it would be $3.91.
Valuation metrics
From the cash-flow model alone; after a one-off collapse in earnings there is no industry value.
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 0.3% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown solidly since 2006, at about 7% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 19%, operating 10%, net 5%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterDebt is elevated. Keep an eye on the interest burden and refinancing.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 2 Feb 2027in 82 days
- Last reported
- 3 Nov 2026EPS reported $0.23 (expected $0.22)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Analysts have cut their 2027 earnings estimate by 3.8% since 15 Oct 2026. Falling estimates often precede bad news.
- Earnings per share
- $0.66−3.5%
- Revenue
- $8.62B0.0%
- Earnings per share
- $0.97−3.8%
- Revenue
- $8.79B+0.1%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook lowered
Share price after the results: +4.8%2026 adjusted EBITDA is now expected only at the low end of the $1.05 to $1.25 billion range because input cost inflation is about $150 million versus $60 to $65 million.
“Accordingly, we now estimate incremental input cost inflation for the full year totaling approximately $150 million versus our previous estimate of $60 million to $65 million.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 4 Aug 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases or sales in the last 6 months.
- Hagemann RobertPurchase
8 May 2026, Board
- Shares
- 14,000
- Price
- $11.00
- Value
- $153,992
- Stafeil JeffreyPurchase
7 May 2026, Board
- Shares
- 17,878.28
- Price
- $11.19
- Value
- $200,001
- Venturelli Larry MPurchase
4 Mar 2026, Board
- Shares
- 17,531
- Price
- $11.36
- Value
- $199,194
Show 1 more
- Rietbroek RobbertPurchase
4 Mar 2026, President and CEO
- Shares
- 44,278
- Price
- $11.32
- Value
- $501,099
Partial trades from one filing are shown in one row, with the average price.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Graphic Packaging Holding
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
602 rated companies in Consumer Cyclical
- This company
- 47
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Packaging & Containers
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Sonoco ProductsSON $4.9B48
- Silgan HoldingsSLGN $4.39B60
- GreifGEF $4.12B56
- VidralaVID.MC $3.57B70
- HuhtamäkiHUH1V.HE $3.11B59
- ViscofanVIS.MC $2.82B69
- Ardagh Metal PackagingAMBP $2.8B51
- VeralliaVRLA.PA $2.47B50
ETFs that hold Graphic Packaging Holding
Held by 13 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rize Sustainable Future of Food UCITS ETFRIZF | 2.78% | 0.45% | €59.51M |
| iShares Dow Jones U.S. Select Dividend UCITS ETF (DE)EXX5 | 0.33% | 0.31% | €415.03M |
| Avantis Global Small Cap Value UCITS ETFAVWS | 0.33% | 0.39% | €1.47B |
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| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.22% | 0.30% | €944.34M |
| State Street SPDR S&P 400 U.S. Mid Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)SPY4 | 0.10% | 0.30% | €5.27B |
| iShares MSCI World Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFCBUG | 0.06% | 0.35% | €434.1M |
| iShares MSCI USA Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFSXRG | 0.06% | 0.43% | €2.48B |
| iShares MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETFIUSN | 0.03% | 0.35% | €8.19B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 4 Sep 2026)
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.