Ardagh Metal Packaging stock
AMBPNYSEArdagh Metal Packaging S.A., Consumer CyclicalISIN LU2369833749
51Score 51 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
80 / 100
Price history
+34% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 6 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 4.4% above it.
Since June 2026 the 50-day line has been above the 200-day line; the trend has turned up.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 48).
The price is 13% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 6 years: 79% (August 2021 to February 2025).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$4.61
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$4.49
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)48
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$3.49
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$5.36
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. belongs to the Packaging & Containers industry (Luxembourg) and, with a market value of $2.8B, is number 19 of 34 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $6.33B (up 15.1%) and adjusted earnings per share of $0.26 (up 24.9%).
- MEQIRI Score 51 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 440 of 602 in Consumer Cyclical, median 61.
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- The P/E is 51.9 (Packaging & Containers median 19.3, own median of recent years 35.2).
- Our model puts fair value at $3.67, with the price 28% above it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Earnings turn into cashFree cash flow above 500% of earnings over the last 12 months.
- High dividend yieldDividend yield 6.4%, Packaging & Containers median 3.34%.Capital allocation 55
Weaknesses
- Interest barely coveredOperating profit covers interest only 1 times.Stability 32
- Richly valuedP/E 51.9, Packaging & Containers median 19.3, own median 35.2.Valuation 34
- Turned to a lossEarnings per share from $0.18 in 2020 to −$0.02.Growth 57
Its standout strengths are momentum and technical analysis, while stability and profitability hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Fundamental quality fluctuates.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk medium
How well MEQIRI warnsIn the middle among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 20 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- weak fundamentals
Valuation
Valuation signal
Modestly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $2.62 and expensive above $6.12 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $5.60 (cash-flow model) and $1.75 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $3.25, at 7.8% it would be $4.31.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (19.3).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 17% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown solidly since 2018, at about 7% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 12%, operating 4%, net 0%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterDebt is elevated. Keep an eye on the interest burden and refinancing.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 25 Feb 2027in 105 days
- Last reported
- 22 Oct 2026EPS reported $0.08 (expected $0.08)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Analysts have cut their 2027 earnings estimate by 5.2% since 15 Oct 2026. Falling estimates often precede bad news.
- Earnings per share
- $0.26−2.1%
- Revenue
- $6.33B+2.6%
- Earnings per share
- $0.29−5.2%
- Revenue
- $6.48B+2.5%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook confirmed
Share price after the results: +1.5%Europe was ahead of expectations and volume growth of about 3% is reaffirmed, capex rises by $40 million, and third quarter EBITDA is guided at $200 million to $210 million (prior year $208 million).
“In terms of guidance for the third quarter, adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $200 million to $210 million versus the prior year quarter of $208 million on a constant currency basis.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 23 Jul 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases or sales in the last 6 months.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Ardagh Metal Packaging
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
602 rated companies in Consumer Cyclical
- This company
- 51
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Packaging & Containers
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- VidralaVID.MC $3.57B70
- Graphic Packaging HoldingGPK $3.28B47
- HuhtamäkiHUH1V.HE $3.11B59
- ViscofanVIS.MC $2.82B69
- VeralliaVRLA.PA $2.47B50
- Mayr-Melnhof KartonMMK.VI $1.59B52
- TriMasTRS $1.37B52
- Myers IndustriesMYE $1.08B61
ETFs that hold Ardagh Metal Packaging
Held by 5 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rize Sustainable Future of Food UCITS ETFRIZF | 2.80% | 0.45% | €59.51M |
| L&G Russell 2000 US Small Cap Quality UCITS ETFETLZ | 0.02% | 0.30% | €185.82M |
| Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF 1CXRS2 | 0.02% | 0.30% | €2.17B |
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| State Street SPDR Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRR | 0.02% | 0.30% | €4.22B |
| Vanguard ESG Global All Cap UCITS ETF (USD) AccumulatingV3AA | 0.00% | 0.24% | €1.69B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 5 Nov 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.