Firefly Aerospace stock
FLYNASDAQFirefly Aerospace Inc., IndustrialsISIN US31816X1063
41Score 41 out of 100, Weak
Price and trend
60 / 100
Price history
+38% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 1 year, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 5.6% below it.
Since August 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 66).
The price is 57% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 1 year: 75% (August 2025 to November 2026).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$20.63
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$26.80
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)66
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$15.18
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$58.81
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Firefly Aerospace Inc. belongs to the Aerospace & Defense industry (United States) and, with a market value of $4.35B, is number 76 of 114 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $159.86M (up 163% year on year) and a loss of $298.34M.
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $439.46M (up 174.9%) and adjusted earnings per share of −$1.86.
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- MEQIRI Score 41 out of 100 (Weak): rank 908 of 1018 in Industrials, median 61.
- Our model puts fair value at $34.30, with the price 26% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- More cash than debtCash $534.73M, financial debt $72.19M.Stability 53
Weaknesses
- Volatile share priceVolatility 116% a year over the last 12 months.Stability 53
- Loss-makingLoss of $324.25M over the last 12 months.Fundamentals 17
- Negative free cash flowFree cash flow −$349.79M over the last 12 months.Fundamentals 17
Its standout strength is valuation, while fundamentals and profitability hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Fundamental quality fluctuates.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansValuation
Valuation signal
Modestly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $22.87 and expensive above $68.60 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $30.99, at 7.8% it would be $39.04.
Valuation metrics
From the cash-flow model alone; without earnings there is no industry value.
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In fiscal 2025, revenue rose 163% on the prior year. Revenue has grown strongly since 2023, at around 70% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 16%, operating −154%, net −187%. Last 12 months: net −88%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterDebt is low, but interest coverage is weak. Keep an eye on the interest burden and refinancing.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 18 Mar 2027in 125 days
- Last reported
- 10 Nov 2026EPS reported −$0.45 (expected −$0.50)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Analysts have raised their 2026 earnings estimate by 4.9% since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- −$1.86+4.9%
- Revenue
- $439.46M0.0%
- Earnings per share
- −$1.48+0.9%
- Revenue
- $684.9M0.0%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook confirmed
Share price after the results: +3.0%2026 revenue guidance reiterated: $420 million to $450 million.
“When you look at where we are from a guidance perspective, we reiterated $420 million to $450 million and some of the moving parts there, as I mentioned before, the trajectory of our growing revenue in the destination, which is between the $420 million to $450 million, where we're going to be, we're going to land …”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 11 Aug 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases in the last 6 months. One insider sold, $169,885 in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
- Wheeler David LeighSale
18 May 2026, General Counsel
- Shares
- 3,765
- Price
- $45.12
- Value
- $169,885
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Firefly Aerospace
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
1018 rated companies in Industrials
- This company
- 41
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Aerospace & Defense
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Planet Labs PBCPL $4.73B37
- MDA SpaceMDA $4.73B50
- OHBOHB.DE $4.43B48
- AARAIR $4.35B61
- RENK GroupR3NK.DE $3.64B56
- LisiFII.PA $3.39B64
- Archer AviationACHR $3.39B33
- ExosensEXENS.PA $2.95B57
ETFs that hold Firefly Aerospace
Held by 11 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Invesco Defence Innovation UCITS ETF AccumUSDIVDF | 1.37% | 0.35% | €136.55M |
| HAN-GINS Tech Megatrend Equal Weight UCITS ETF AccT3KE | 0.88% | 0.59% | €98.84M |
| Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF 1CXRS2 | 0.06% | 0.30% | €2.22B |
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| State Street SPDR Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRR | 0.06% | 0.30% | €4.28B |
| State Street SPDR MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRS | 0.02% | 0.45% | €1.54B |
| iShares MSCI USA Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFSXRG | 0.02% | 0.43% | €2.5B |
| iShares MSCI World Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFCBUG | 0.00% | 0.10% | €395.74M |
| UBS MSCI USA Select Factor Mix UCITS ETF USD accUSUE | 0.00% | 0.25% | €178.55M |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 7 Aug 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.