Finnair stock: fair value
FIA1S.HEThe fair value of Finnair under our model is $15.45, the price is 59% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $11.04 and expensive above $25.76 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $19.21 (cash-flow model) and $11.70 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 10.5%. At 11.5% the fair value would be $14.27, at 9.5% it would be $16.98.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but high risk.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (16.1).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.6%. Discounted at 10.5% (government bond yield 2.6% plus beta 1.71 times a risk premium of 4.6%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $19.21 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 10.5%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 10.5%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $178.6M | extrapolated at 34.7% | 0.9051 | $161.64M |
| 2027 | $223.41M | extrapolated at 25.1% | 0.8191 | $183M |
| 2028 | $264.41M | extrapolated at 18.4% | 0.7414 | $196.02M |
| 2029 | $300.45M | extrapolated at 13.6% | 0.6710 | $201.6M |
| 2030 | $331.48M | extrapolated at 10.3% | 0.6073 | $201.3M |
| 2031 | $358.05M | extrapolated at 8.0% | 0.5496 | $196.79M |
| 2032 | $380.95M | extrapolated at 6.4% | 0.4974 | $189.5M |
| 2033 | $401.01M | extrapolated at 5.3% | 0.4502 | $180.54M |
| 2034 | $418.93M | extrapolated at 4.5% | 0.4075 | $170.7M |
| 2035 | $435.34M | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.3688 | $160.55M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.84B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.6%) / (10.5% − 2.6%) | $5.68B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3688) | $2.09B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $3.94B |
| Shares (diluted) | 204.85M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $19.21 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.73 |
| × 16.1 (industry P/E) | $11.70 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $15.45 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 3 Jul 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.