Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. stock: fair value
AEROThe fair value of Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. under our model is $57.01, the price is 71% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $40.72 and expensive above $95.02 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $96.46 (cash-flow model) and $17.57 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 15.4%. At 16.4% the fair value would be $52.60, at 14.4% it would be $62.30.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but high risk.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (16.1).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 15.4% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.72 times a risk premium of 6.7%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $96.46 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 15.4%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 15.4%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $825.53M | extrapolated at 47.1% | 0.8669 | $715.64M |
| 2027 | $1.11B | extrapolated at 34.1% | 0.7515 | $831.99M |
| 2028 | $1.38B | extrapolated at 25.0% | 0.6514 | $901.74M |
| 2029 | $1.64B | extrapolated at 18.7% | 0.5647 | $927.63M |
| 2030 | $1.88B | extrapolated at 14.2% | 0.4896 | $918.47M |
| 2031 | $2.08B | extrapolated at 11.1% | 0.4244 | $884.59M |
| 2032 | $2.27B | extrapolated at 8.9% | 0.3679 | $835.23M |
| 2033 | $2.44B | extrapolated at 7.4% | 0.3189 | $777.57M |
| 2034 | $2.59B | extrapolated at 6.3% | 0.2765 | $716.69M |
| 2035 | $2.74B | extrapolated at 5.6% | 0.2397 | $655.92M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $8.17B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (15.4% − 3.8%) | $24.65B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.2397) | $5.91B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $14.07B |
| Shares (diluted) | 145.90M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $96.46 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $1.09 |
| × 16.1 (industry P/E) | $17.57 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $57.01 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 18 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.