National Vision Holdings stock
EYENASDAQNational Vision Holdings, Inc., Consumer CyclicalISIN US63845R1077
48Score 48 out of 100, Weak
Price and trend
55 / 100
Price history
−25% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 9 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 14% below it.
Since April 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 46).
The price is 39% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 9 years: 85% (November 2021 to September 2024).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$17.07
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$20.97
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)46
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$15.44
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$29.46
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- National Vision Holdings, Inc. belongs to the Specialty Retail industry (United States) and, with a market value of $1.43B, is number 59 of 86 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $2.06B (up 3.6%) and adjusted earnings per share of $1.01 (up 25.9%).
- MEQIRI Score 48 out of 100 (Weak): rank 480 of 602 in Consumer Cyclical, median 61.
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- The P/E is 29 (Specialty Retail median 23, own median of recent years 73.1).
- Our model puts fair value at $19.64, with the price 8% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
None of our strength checks applies.
Weaknesses
- Volatile share priceVolatility 53% a year over the last 12 months.Stability 41
The score is held back by profitability and capital allocation.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
The fundamentals are in the middle range.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 36 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- price far below its 52-week high
- high price swings
What lowers it
- price not overheated over the past year
Valuation
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $14.03 and expensive above $32.73 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $24.94 (cash-flow model) and $14.34 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9.4%. At 10.4% the fair value would be $17.68, at 8.4% it would be $22.45.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (23).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 4 Jul 2026, revenue rose 7.8% on the twelve months before. Up to 2023 the bars include businesses that were later spun off or sold. On a comparable basis, as restated in the SEC annual reports, revenue grew 7.2% a year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 54%, operating 3%, net 1%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterModerate debt, and interest is adequately covered.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 3 Mar 2027in 111 days
- Last reported
- 12 Nov 2026EPS reported $0.30 (expected $0.17)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $1.01−0.1%
- Revenue
- $2.06B0.0%
- Earnings per share
- $1.20−0.3%
- Revenue
- $2.16B−0.1%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook raised
Share price after the results: −13.6%Profit outlook raised meaningfully (adjusted operating income of $119 million to $139 million), revenue range narrowed to $2.03 billion to $2.08 billion on a more prudent view of traffic.
“We now expect adjusted operating income between $119 million and $139 million, which includes a range for depreciation and amortization of $92 million to $93 million.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 12 Aug 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
One insider bought on the open market in the last 6 months, $776,000 in total.
- Nicholson Michael JPurchase
5 Jun 2026, Board
- Shares
- 50,000
- Price
- $15.52
- Value
- $776,000
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at National Vision Holdings
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
602 rated companies in Consumer Cyclical
- This company
- 48
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Specialty Retail
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Sally Beauty HoldingsSBH $1.8B69
- Savers Value VillageSVV $1.52B64
- ATRenewRERE $1.44B60
- Liquidity ServicesLQDT $1.44B74
- Revolve GroupRVLV $1.41B60
- New Wave GroupNEWA-B.ST $1.4B65
- RustaRUSTA.ST $1.23B65
- MarineMaxHZO $1.17B42
ETFs that hold National Vision Holdings
Held by 11 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| iShares S&P SmallCap 600 UCITS ETFIUS3 | 0.08% | 0.30% | €2.28B |
| L&G Russell 2000 US Small Cap Quality UCITS ETFETLZ | 0.05% | 0.30% | €185.82M |
| State Street SPDR Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRR | 0.05% | 0.30% | €4.22B |
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| Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF 1CXRS2 | 0.05% | 0.30% | €2.17B |
| iShares MSCI World Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFCBUG | 0.04% | 0.35% | €434.1M |
| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.03% | 0.30% | €944.34M |
| iShares MSCI USA Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFSXRG | 0.03% | 0.43% | €2.48B |
| iShares MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETFIUSN | 0.01% | 0.35% | €8.19B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 3 Jan 2026
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 13 Mar 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.