VAALCO Energy stock: fair value
EGYThe fair value of VAALCO Energy under our model is $11.48, the price is 52% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $8.20 and expensive above $19.13 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $9.57, at 7.8% it would be $14.34.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but high risk.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; without earnings there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 8.8% (floor: government bond yield 3.8% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.8 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $11.48 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $62.07M | extrapolated at 2.4% | 0.9189 | $57.03M |
| 2027 | $63.81M | extrapolated at 2.8% | 0.8443 | $53.87M |
| 2028 | $65.79M | extrapolated at 3.1% | 0.7758 | $51.04M |
| 2029 | $67.98M | extrapolated at 3.3% | 0.7129 | $48.46M |
| 2030 | $70.35M | extrapolated at 3.5% | 0.6550 | $46.08M |
| 2031 | $72.87M | extrapolated at 3.6% | 0.6019 | $43.86M |
| 2032 | $75.53M | extrapolated at 3.7% | 0.5530 | $41.77M |
| 2033 | $78.33M | extrapolated at 3.7% | 0.5082 | $39.81M |
| 2034 | $81.27M | extrapolated at 3.8% | 0.4669 | $37.95M |
| 2035 | $84.33M | extrapolated at 3.8% | 0.4291 | $36.18M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $456.05M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (8.8% − 3.8%) | $1.75B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4291) | $751.39M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $1.21B |
| Shares (diluted) | 105.19M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $11.48 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $11.48 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 6 Nov 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.