Greenfire Resources stock: fair value
GFRThe fair value of Greenfire Resources under our model is $5.37, the price is 44% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $3.58 and expensive above $10.74 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.2%. At 9.2% the fair value would be $4.48, at 7.2% it would be $6.70.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; without earnings there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.2%. Discounted at 8.2% (floor: government bond yield 3.2% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.8 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $5.37 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.2%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.2%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $40.34M | extrapolated at 0.6% | 0.9246 | $37.3M |
| 2027 | $40.88M | extrapolated at 1.4% | 0.8550 | $34.95M |
| 2028 | $41.66M | extrapolated at 1.9% | 0.7905 | $32.93M |
| 2029 | $42.6M | extrapolated at 2.3% | 0.7310 | $31.14M |
| 2030 | $43.68M | extrapolated at 2.5% | 0.6759 | $29.52M |
| 2031 | $44.87M | extrapolated at 2.7% | 0.6249 | $28.04M |
| 2032 | $46.15M | extrapolated at 2.9% | 0.5778 | $26.67M |
| 2033 | $47.5M | extrapolated at 2.9% | 0.5343 | $25.38M |
| 2034 | $48.93M | extrapolated at 3.0% | 0.4940 | $24.17M |
| 2035 | $50.42M | extrapolated at 3.1% | 0.4568 | $23.03M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $293.14M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.2%) / (8.2% − 3.2%) | $1.04B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4568) | $475.15M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $768.29M |
| Shares (diluted) | 143.12M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $5.37 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $5.37 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CA$1.4249)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral since 10 Nov 2026, previously Weak
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.